GRAHAM WARWICK / WASHINGTON DC
As we celebrate the first century of aviation, Flight International is launching a series of articles looking at what lies in store for flight during the next 100 years
Less that 12 months from now, the first century of flight will close with the re-enactment of the Wright brothers' brief but historic first flight at Kitty Hawk on the Atlantic coast of North Carolina.
It has been 100 years of remarkable achievement. From modest beginnings above the sand dunes of Kill Devil Hills, aviation has become part of the mobility, economy and security of almost every nation.
But that is history; what of the future? The second century of flight opens with aviation buffeted not by the gusts of Kill Devil Hills, but by the turbulence of terrorism, the winds or war, and the unending ebb and surge of the economy. The optimism of two 19th century bicycle shop owners from Ohio has been replaced by a gloominess caused by a worldwide economic slump, the threat from Islamic fundamentalism and so-called rogue nations possessing the capability to inflict nuclear, biological or chemical attacks.
Can the industry the Wrights pioneered, and which has taken man to the moon and spacecraft to the edges of the Solar System, redefined the way wars are waged and shrunk the world for millions of people, regain and sustain the respect and vitality it is losing to other, newer industries?
Over the next 12 months, Flight International will take a critical look at the opportunities and challenges facing the aerospace industry in this second century of flight. The challenges are real, but the opportunities are many.
Our 12-part Future of Flight series begins with this issue, which takes a look at the work of the Wrights, and their lasting contribution to aviation. Future articles will focus, in turn, on the many facets of the industry the Wrights helped to create and seek to answer some key questions.
Has the debate over size versus speed, to which the 21st century opened, been decided forever in favour of efficiency, or will the dream of high-speed civil transports resurface as it has before? And will speed or size really make a difference if the airport and airspace infrastructure built up over the last 100 years cannot cope with the next century's demands?
Are the airlines destined to follow the railways and become government-subsidised commercial backwaters that survive only because of their importance to the mobility and economy of nations?
The debate over quality versus quantity within military aviation was decided years ago in favour of a smaller number of more capable combat aircraft. Will the debate reopen as defence planners wrestle with the respective roles and missions of manned and unmanned aircraft?
Will the imbalance in spending on defence research, development and procurement between the USA and the rest of the world continue to escalate?
Will the USA end up dominating allies and enemies alike, and unable to co-operate effectively because of its military supremacy? Will this superiority see it replacing the United Nations not just as the world's policeman, but as judge and jury too? Or will it revert to the isolationism of the early 20th century?
Will the dream of an aircraft in every garage ever be realised? Or will air taxis make personal jet travel available to all? Can space tourism, or some other compelling commercial application, make access to space routine and affordable?
These are just some of the questions our Future of Flight series will pose, and try to answer, as the world of aviation counts down to the 100th anniversary of the Wrights' historic first flight.
Now, over the next 12 pages, we focus on the technical revolution that took place at Kitty Hawk, with an exclusive cutaway of the Wright Flyer by artist Frank Munger, together with a technical description of the aircraft, a look at the Flyer replicas being built to mark the centenary and a flight test of a copy of the Wright B Flyer, the brothers' first "production" aircraft.
Source: Flight International