Kate Sarsfield/LONDON
The economic shackles are steadily being removed from the single-engined turboprop market as international aviation authorities reverse their longstanding prohibition on single-engined instrument flight rules (IFR) operations for commercial flights. The impressive safety record of Pratt &Whitney Canada PT6 turbine-powered aircraft has contributed a great deal to the change.
In May, the US Federal Aviation Administration joined a succession of aviation authorities, including Australia and Canada, to permit commercial operations of turboprop singles. The European Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA) continues to drag its heels, however. The major players in this sector of the industry - Cessna, Pilatus and Socata - maintain that the new regulations, coupled with buoyant Western economies, are having a dramatic effect on the burgeoning single-engined turboprop market.
"The market is looking good," says Cessna Caravan marketing and sales manager Bill Hogan. Cessna's offering, the 208 Caravan, is widely regarded as the turboprop-single stalwart. Conceived in 1984, primarily as a utility aircraft, the company has now delivered nearly 1,000 Caravans, including the stretched 208B Super Cargo Master and Grand Caravan, which have flown a combined total of around 3.2 million flight hours. The majority of these "low maintenance" aircraft are sold to freight operators. "In any one night, around 450 aircraft are carrying parcels," adds Hogan. The $1.77 million P&WC PT6-114A-powered aircraft is also sold in smaller numbers to corporate operators, including FedEx, with more than 270 aircraft, and to smaller airlines in Central and South America, where the infrastructure is conducive to small turboprops. The Caravan is also used to support isolated communities in remote regions of Australia, Canada and the USA (Alaska, in particular). "We will always operate where there is no scheduled connection to the mainland by air - we will never fly between London and Paris," concedes Hogan.
LONG TERM FUTURE
Pilatus, which offers the pressurised, nine-seat PC-12, is also in an ebullient mood. "We are confident that the industry has a long-term future. We offer long-range, cost-effective transportation at a reasonable price," says PC-12 programme manager Ignaz Gretner. The multimission aircraft, which entered service in 1994, is equipped with the larger PT6A variant and is claimed by the Stans, Switzerland-based manufacturer to be able to carry more weight for less money than any other pressurised turbine in the world.
"The aircraft offers a range of 2,000nm [3,700km] with IFR reserves, and it is 100kt [185km/h] faster than the Caravan," says Gretner. The $2.44 million PC-12 offers an aft cargo door as standard, which allows it to be used in a combi configuration (carrying freight/stretchers and passengers). To date, Pilatus has sold 114 aircraft, the majority of which are placed in the USA. According to Pilatus, around 76% are sold for corporate use, 14% to airlines and 10% to medical evacuation operators. Pilatus is successfully tapping the burgeoning medevac market and has already sold two PC-12s to the Royal Canadian Mounted Police "-who are looking to increase their fleet", and to the Australian Royal Flying Doctors association, which has logged more then 2,500 flying hours in "some of the harshest weather conditions".
"We believe there is a strong future for the industry," says Socata, manufacturer of the smaller TBM700. The seven-seat aircraft is sold primarily as a private or corporate aircraft to small companies which require fast, cost-effective transport. Smaller numbers are sold to charter operators (mainly in Australia and Canada), and for aerial photography and medevac operations. Since the $2.5 million PT6A-64-powered aircraft entered service in 1990, the Paris, France-based Aerospatiale subsidiary has sold more than 120 aircraft. "Working on a production rate of 20 aircraft a year, we are sold out through 1998 and 1999," says Socata.
New Piper Aircraft, which is now developing its $1.35 million, six-seat Malibu Meridian turboprop single, is confident that the market will continue to grow, replacing the less reliable piston aircraft in its class. "Single-turbine aircraft are changing the face of the market," says Chuck Suma, New Piper's chief executive. "The powerplant technology in this class of aircraft makes the product more affordable and more flexible," he adds. The Vero Beach, Florida-based manufacturer has already clocked up 90 orders for the PT6A-42A-powered Meridian, which is scheduled for first deliveries in 2000.
The three manufacturers stress that the regulation changes in North America and Australia have enabled the industry to turn a corner. "They have opened their doors to more opportunities - operators can now utilise their aircraft fully," says Cessna's Hogan. Airlines and charter operators in particular are reaping the benefits of these changes and can now use their aircraft commercially for hire or reward. "Now that we have approval, we hope to increase our production rate from 36 aircraft a year to 50 a year in 1999, with airlines and medevac aircraft scooping around 50% of the sales," says Pilatus' Gretner.
Hogan agrees, saying: "In Canada, cargo operators have seen a 30% increase in revenues since the new regulations were introduced, as they are supplementing the aircraft with passenger carrying capability - we expect the US market to grow at the same rate." The manufacturers are now working together to persuade the JAA to fall in line.
Within Europe, operators are concerned that they will be placed at a disadvantage, with the JAA reluctant to alter its restrictive conditions for Joint Aviation Rule OPS 1, which is scheduled for implementation on 1 October, 1999. Under a recently drafted Advanced Notice of Proposed Amendment (ANPA), the JAA states that it will approve in principle only originally manufactured aircraft - the 208 Caravan, the PC-12 and the TBM700.
"The aircraft must be suitably equipped and the operation has to be of a very high standard, with emphasis on initial and recurrent training with engine trend monitoring," says UK-based Caravan distributor Bob Crowe.
SUITABLE LANDING SITES
The ANPA also stresses that the aircraft should remain within gliding distance of suitable alternate landing sites. The Netherlands-based authority maintains that these restrictive condition have to be applied because "-Western Europe is more densely populated than any other areas of the world". Crowe disagrees, saying: "This is just not true, as the north-east of the USA, where 50 Caravans fly every night, is just as densely populated as the UK. The weather is often much worse and there are fewer aerodromes available."
Crowe believes that the UK CAA is the main stumbling block, because it fails to comply with the current European regulations, which allow aircraft on any European Union register to operate throughout the continent at night and in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) while operating commercially and carrying freight. "The UK [CAA] has prohibited any single-engined aircraft of any nationality whatsoever from operating commercially within the UK IFR at night or in IMC. Why the UK is the only country to introduce such restrictions on commercial single-engined aircraft and yet permits private operations is difficult to comprehend," he argues.
Crowe says that the majority of accidents are not caused by engine failure, but pilot error, with the main reason being controlled flight into terrain. "An improvement in safety will be achieved by the regulatory authorities making the solution fit the size of the problem and not by regulation for regulation's sake," he adds.
US safety consultant Robert Breiling has produced a study of loss of power accidents among four categories of aircraft from 1991 to 1995, based on US National Air Transport Association and FAA databases. It reveals that single-engined turboprop aircraft (including agricultural machines) experienced fewer crashes than reciprocating-engine singles and twins, clocking up a safety record which is nearly as impressive as that of twin-engined turboprops. Breiling assessed all causes of inflight engine failure, including fuel starvation and pilot error, as well as mechanical factors, and found that single-engined turboprops experienced 19.9% of accidents, while multi-engined turboprops experienced 18.5%.
Breiling asserts that, if the study was confined solely to the PC-12, Caravan and TBM700, the safety record would probably be better than that of the multi-engined turboprops. "The reliability of single-engined aircraft is far superior to that of reciprocating-powered aircraft [with a 30.3% and 28.7% inflight engine failure for single and multi-engined aircraft respectively]. Therefore, with a safety record as impressive as this, the single-engined turboprop aircraft market is here to stay," he says.
Cessna's Hogan believes the safety concerns are not felt by the users, but by the industry as a whole. "Passengers don't have a problem with single-engined aircraft - they appreciate the benefits that they offer, including the ability to fly in and out of remote locations, and they accept this. This industry is conditioned to think that two engines are better than one, which is not true any more," he says.
Socata agrees. "At one time you needed six engines to move 50 people, then you needed four and now you can carry more than 200 passengers across the Atlantic with only two engines. People will eventually accept that an aircraft can fly very safely with one engine," says the manufacturer.
Alpha Flying, which offers the world's first single-engined turboprop fractional-ownership programme from its base in Norwood, Massachusetts, believes these aircraft are becoming increasingly popular among small to medium sized companies, which cannot justify the cost of a jet for a 1,295km trip.
"The operating costs of a PC-12 are less than half of those of similar sized jets, and about 25% less than for the same sized turboprops," says PlaneSense vice-president Patricia Reed. Although she admits that there will always be people who will never be interested in their programme because of the "single-engined factor", the popularity of the programme is growing. "We plan to increase our fleet of PC-12s from four to 10 aircraft during the next two years," adds Reed.
To date, the aircraft have accumulated more than 3,000 fleet hours of operation and AlphaFlying is now expanding its hub network to the mid-west and south-east of the USA.
MARKET IMPACT
There is no denying that the emerging single-engined jets (the $1.8 million VisionAire Vantage will become available in late 1999) will have an impact on the corporate and owner operator single-engined turboprop market, by offering a similar price tag and versatility. "If customers have a choice between a higher and faster aircraft for around the same price, it is not a difficult decision to make," says one jet manufacturer. In the long term, however, many observers feel that both markets will complement each other.
"There is a role for both aircraft types," says Hogan. "Perhaps turboprop manufacturers will take an increased share of the medevac and utility market, but, on the whole, if the world's economies remain strong, there is a tremendous future for single turboprops."
Source: Flight International
