Air Tahiti Nui's plan for one-stop Los Angeles-Sydney flights is the latest by potential competitors to claim some of the trans-South Pacific market dominated by Qantas and Air New Zealand (ANZ).
When Air Tahiti Nui starts Airbus A340 flights to Sydney via its Papeete hub, connecting with its flights from Los Angeles, it will join Air Canada, Hawaiian and Fiji's Air Pacific, 46% owned by Qantas, in offering one-stop service spanning the South Pacific between North America and Australia. Air Tahiti Nui already competes with Air Pacific for one-stop North America-New Zealand flights.
In the key nonstop market, United still offers the only competition, with 31% of the Australia-US nonstop capacity. Qantas claims the rest. Qantas and ANZ split the New Zealand-US nonstops: ANZ 68%, Qantas 32%. No one has challenged this duopoly since United dropped New Zealand last year.
But several other carriers have their eyes on the trans-South Pacific market. Australia-USA is on a list of potential routes Virgin Blue is studying. Virgin Blue has told the Australian government it is interested in this route, even though it has no immediate plans. In a parallel situation, New Zealand charter operator Airwork sought and gained Washington's approval for New Zealand-US charters, but also has no immediate plans.
Singapore Airlines is the most determined potential entrant. Under the liberalised Singapore-Australia bilateral signed last year, both sides allow unlimited third and fourth freedoms and agreed to discuss fifth freedoms beyond each other.
So far Canberra has resisted such talks on the grounds that global aviation must show "more stability". Singapore suspended its efforts during Australia's national election, but with that now over and the recent record profit Qantas reported, Singapore is pressing for fifth freedoms this year.
Finally, during the ANZ-Qantas merger appeal, ANZ chief executive Ralph Norris warned that Emirates is planning New Zealand-US flights. Emirates denies it, but the Australasia-North America market is too important for rivals to ignore for long.
DAVID KNIBB SEATTLE
Source: Airline Business
