The survey also has harsh words for some of the world's newer aviation industries - in particular, describing the whole rationale behind Indonesia's IPTN as "misguided".
Teal Group, the US-based defence and aerospace market analysis firm, makes its predictions in its World Aircraft Overview.
The document's main emphasis is on aircraft production figures for the decade out to 2007 (see separate story), but its more interesting crystal-ball gazing takes place at the outer fringes of that timescale.
Senior aircraft analyst Richard Aboulafia maps out three key programme battlegrounds for which crucial decisions will have to be made over the next five to 10 years - the Joint Strike Fighter, civil 'Super Jumbos' and military strategic transports.
Groundbreaking
All three areas could see Boeing and Lockheed Martin locked in battle - the latter by itself or in what he describes as "groundbreaking co-operation" with European manufacturers.
* Joint Strike Fighter: Any successor to Eurofighter would require unprecedented co-operation between European nations or not be built at all, says the study. The multi-role US Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) could admirably fit European needs, but possibly at the cost of killing off the continent's aviation industry.
Europe has to get its act together rapidly to avoid this fate and build its own advanced medium fighter. Alternatively - and a better option, argues the report - it could team with the losing US contender and offer both the US and rest of the world an alternative fifth-generation fighter. Over its lifespan, the JSF will be worth some $160 billion to either Boeing or Lockheed Martin, assuming sales of 4,500 aircraft, half of them for export.
Mission
* Strategic airlift: The 2012-16 period will see replacements required for USAF's fleets of Lockheed Martin C-5 Galaxy heavy transports and Boeing C-135 tankers and special mission aircraft. European air arms will also probably require a strategic lift and tanker capability.
Boeing would be delighted to sell C-17s for the former role and 767s for the latter, says the survey. However, Lockheed Martin's proposed New Strategic Aircraft "-has a number of merits. In addition to new technology, it could bring US and European companies and militaries closer together, the first new and international aircraft."
The main obstacle would be whether both the US and Europe could stomach the costs involved to develop the new aircraft.
* 'Super Jumbos': Despite Boeing's decision last year to put the 747-500/600 on the back burner, it will go ahead sooner or later with a follow-on to the 747-400, says the survey. Apart from anything else, the 747 provides "-a cheap and effective way to keep Airbus out of the market."
Airbus, it believes, will find it difficult (but not impossible) to fund a competitor. The most revolutionary, yet logical, solution would be to link up with Lockheed Martin on the A3XX.
Revolutionise
Combined with a partnership on a military strategic transporter, this alliance would revolutionise the aviation industry.
Coming back closer to the present, Aboulafia controversially comments that "-outside the US and Europe, most countries are slowly getting the message that aviation is not an industry for dabblers. The Asian crisis is driving this message home."
Developing an indigenous aircraft industry to satisfy national security or industrial policies are "-woefully inadequate reasons to develop an aircraft industry," he argues.
Japan's Mitsubishi F-2 (formerly the FS-X) "-is basically a Lockheed Martin F-16 with a tripled price tag.
"Taiwan's AIDC Ching Kuo is cheaper than an F-2, but not nearly as good as an F-16. India's HAL LCA is destined to be a rupee-wasting mistake.
Experienced
"Countries which really care about national security will buy fighters built by an established and experienced producer."
The report sees an end to the days of governments pouring money into new aviation industries. Brazil's Embraer was the classic example of this in the past. "Indonesia's IPTN wants to follow, but the International Monetary Fund's loan restrictions may cut short the company's misguided life."
Airliners continue new-build market dominationThe Teal Group World Aircraft Overview covers virtually all manned, turbine-powered aircraft, both military and civil.
Its Aircraft Production Forecast 1998-2007 shows the predominance of commercial jet transports, whose $43.2-billion market this year will account for 57% of all new-build aircraft.
Even in the leaner years predicted for the turn of the century, the airliner business will amount to almost half the total new-build business.
Over the coming decade, it will be worth some $358 billion, compared with the next largest market segment, fighter aircraft, at $116 billion.
In crude number terms, the survey predicts that Boeing will lose most over the coming decade, but this is relative; 1998 will be a peak year for deliveries, so most years would look poorer by comparison. The Seattle giant remains by far the largest manufacturer.
However, the recent market share war with Airbus in Asia may have produced a short-term surge in narrowbody production for Boeing, but this can only end, says the report.
Asia's recent economic turmoil has also hurt widebody sales prospects. This has already postponed the launch of the long-range Boeing 777-200X and -300X, a delay that will help the Airbus A340-500/600 make inroads into the Boeing-dominated Pacific market.
The report sees growth in Europe's share of world aircraft production (from 23.9% now to 29.2% in 2007), largely due to military programmes such as Eurofighter and the Tiger combat helicopter.
Source: Flight Daily News
