Tim Furniss/LONDON
OF THE 1,360 PAYLOADS expected to be launched into Earth orbit before 2004, 65% are commercial communications satellites, according to the Worldwide Mission Model study produced by the Teal Group, the defence and aerospace market-analysis company based in Fairfax, Virginia.
These and similar market assessments make interesting reading for the voracious satellite-launcher organisations, led by Arianespace and ILS International Launch Services, which have already secured contracts for launches for geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites in 2000, in a market that could be worth $15 billion to 2004.
More than half of the communications satellites, however, belong to multi-satellite systems which will be operated in low-Earth orbit (LEO) and intermediate circular orbit (ICO), offering mobile voice, data, messaging and position-determination communications services worldwide. These include Motorola's Iridium, the Globalstar satellites being developed by Loral, the Inmarsat ICO spacecraft and Orbital Sciences' Orbcomm fleet. Launches of most of these satellites systems have already been secured on US and international boosters.
Only 18% of the proposed commercial communications satellites to be launched within the next eight years are heading for GEO. Over 60 of these satellite projects are already operating, or planned. Those offering traditional telecommunications and television-broadcast services represent 39% of the GEO craft projected to be launched through to 2004. Direct-to-home TV-broadcasting satellites represent 28%; mobile systems,15%; multi-purpose spacecraft 15%; and the smaller, more recent, band of broadband multi-media communications satellites 3%.
Asia-pacific growth
The number of systems in the Asia-Pacific region is growing rapidly, making the area the second most important customer for satellite services, representing 20% of the market, or $6.1 billion. The USA represents 45% ($12.6 billion) and Europe 14% ($4.3 billion).
The Teal Group study notes that there is potential for over 200 GEO commercial communications satellites to be launched to 2004, with an estimated value of $27.7 billion. The number of these being launched annually will peak at about 33-34 in 1997-8, with a value of about $5.2 billion, 29% more than the 1995 level, and will then start to decline. This number will bottom out at six, then rise to ten in 2004, says the Teal study.
"Given the advent of the LEO communications satellites over the next two years, I don't see the GEO market recovering [after 2004]," says Teal Group market analyst Marco Caceres. "It won't be cyclical like the airliner market. The future of communications satellites lies in the smaller, cheaper, LEOs," he says.
A similar report produced by European launcher organisation Arianespace says that 158 satellites were launched commercially between 1988 and 1995, while this number of craft - including not just communications satellites, but also weather, science and other satellites, weighing over 1,000kg at lift-off - will increase to "up to 240" by 2003. Its assessment is that the total number being launched annually could peak at 35 in 1999, while its nominal predictions for communications satellites are in agreement with those of the Teal Group. The majority of communications satellites requiring launch to GEO will actually weigh between 2,400kg and 3,900kg, it says.
The US Department of Transportation has extended the predictions of the GEO market to 2010. It says that there will be 328 commercial launches for GEO satellites to 2010, at an average of 20 a year. It says that 16% of this number represents a market which cannot be serviced by US launchers, such as European and Asia-Pacific satellites which are "guaranteed" Ariane or Long March flights.
Paris-based Euroconsult says that 85% of those spacecraft being launched to 1998 are for telecommunications. The remaining 15% are for Earth-observation, science and weather applications. The worldwide space-services market is expected to generate between $95and $115 billion up to 2004, with $14-$17.4 billion for spacecraft; $15.4 billion for launch services; and $65-$83 billion for the ground segment.
The $15 billion launch-services market will continue to be highly competitive, although there cannot realistically be much room for new entrants which require huge investment to get started and which have not established credibility with some launches. Existing boosters for both geostationary-transfer orbit (GTO), GEO and LEO launches - or their derivatives - will continue to dominate and there is the distinct likelihood that the Space Shuttle could re-enter the fray before 2000 under its new operator, United Space Alliance. Several of the boosters, particularly US models, are "underwritten" by military and government contracts.
More than 250 satellites have been manifested firmly on launchers in the commercial market for flights to GTO, GEO, ICO and LEO, to 2000. China's Long March fleet has five GTO satellites and 24 LEO craft, not including planned national launches. The 24 LEO craft are 12 Iridium (six launches) and 12 Globalstars (one launch). The failure of the first Long March 3B in February has resulted not only in the loss of several contracts, but also of credibility, which may never be recovered.
Arianespace continues to dominate the market with 42 firm orders for satellites, of which 37 are civil GTO craft and five are military/government flights to GTO and LEO. Japan's H2 will take commercial business after the year 2000, when plans for a cheaper, uprated H2 will be well in hand. This booster has ten reservations from Hughes.
The Lockheed Martin/Khrunichev/Energia ILS International Launch Services Russian Proton booster has seven confirmed GEO flights manifested - not including national flights - and seven flights to LEO with each of three Iridium satellites, while neighbouring ILS' Atlas fleet has 11 civil GEO satellites, plus ten for the government/military. Ukraine has secured three launches of 12 Globalstars each for its Zenit booster. Although it has ten reservations, the US/Ukraine Zenit-based Sea Launch has no definite launches yet.
Fleet make-up
The Russian Rokot has one commercial LEO launch and the Start booster has two, while Lockheed Martin's LLV fleet has six craft booked, two of which are planned company spacecraft, and two for NASA. The maiden flight of the LLV failed in 1995. The EER Systems Conestoga is without a customer after its disastrous maiden flight in 1995.
The McDonnell Douglas Delta 2 fleet has 55 Iridium LEO spacecraft to lift in five launches, plus two launches of each of four Globalstars. There are three civil GEO spacecraft, three planetary craft for NASA and two LEO government spacecraft. The Delta is also secured, with 22 launches of Navstar global-positioning satellites. The new Delta 3 has ten reservations, but no firm takers, while the new Delta-based Med-Lite will carry three NASA planetary craft.
Orbital Sciences' air-launched Pegasus booster has two civil LEO craft booked, four confirmed company launches of Orbcomm craft, and eight for NASA and the military.
The market for new commercial launches will come from the latest GEO communications-satellite systems, which are being manufactured or planned, and replacement launches for existing systems. There could be 120 satellites left to be launched, mainly between 1999 and 2004.
The LEO/ICO launch market is likely to be represented by so-far-uncommitted launches of Inmarsat and Odyssey craft and a constant stream of launches to replace satellites in the Iridium and Globalstar constellations, and to launch new systems in what the Teal Group sees as a fast-growing market for LEO launches for communications applications.
Source: Flight International
