PAUL LEWIS/ WASHINGTON DC
Latest predictions see demand rising from military and paramilitary customers with a desire for newer technology
Newly released rotorcraft forecasts from Honeywell and Rolls-Royce/ Teal Group point to a modest recovery in world demand for turbine-powered helicopters up to 2010. The upturn will stem from a rise in business in the military and paramilitary markets, ageing civil machines, and the desire for newer technology and improved performance.
Honeywell's civil helicopter outlook for the next five years projects deliveries of around 2,600 new helicopters, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 3%. Rolls-Royce's broader 10-year forecast of worldwide turbine helicopter deliveries, produced with industrial forecaster Teal, totals 10,407 machines by 2012, of which the civil market will account for almost half. In terms of value, however, the split is heavily weighted 78:22 in favour of the military.
"We see a significant growth in the military re-engining market and continue to have discussions with the US special operations forces about the need for extra hot/high performance for the [Sikorsky] H-60 and are getting positive feedback from the US Marine Corps for the CH-53E," says Stuart Mullan, president of Rolls-Royce North America's helicopter operations. In addition to offering the RTM322 and AE1107 for the H-60 and CH-53 respectively, the company's other main re-engining focus is on the LHTEC T800 and AgustaWestland Super Lynx.
Rolls-Royce/Teal forecast a 33% increase in military rotorcraft deliveries over the next five years, almost half of which will be new multi-engine heavy machines, like theEH Industries EH101, and 24% intermediate twins in the form of attack helicopters. In contrast, according to Honeywell, 51% of civil deliveries over the next 10 years will be single turbines, like the Bell 206/407, driven mainly by the US market. Just under 19% will be accounted for by light twins, such as the Eurocopter EC135, with the strongest demand coming from a more heavily regulated Europe.
"Fleet age and the recent introduction of new and derivative helicopter models continue to be important factors," says Mike Redenbaugh, Honeywell acting president, engines, system and services. The average age of Western civil turbine helicopters is now almost 27 years and 80% of new purchases will be replacements. Demand in the two largest markets, the USA and Europe, is driven by law enforcement and medical evacuation, plus a leap in the European market for corporate machines.
Source: Flight International
