Taiwan Aerospace Corporation appears to have found a regional aircraft partner in the most unlikely place, after claiming that it has reached an agreement in principle on a production and ownership role in the Chinese-led Asian Express AE-100 project. But four serious doubts still persist over the venture.
TAC's agreement is apparently with Singapore Technologies Aerospace rather than China direct. Aviation Industries of China, the project leader, says it has held no talks with Taiwan but would be willing to consider its involvement. TAC claims it will take part of the potential Singaporean share under a division that would produce a 45 per cent stake for China, 20 to 25 per cent for Singapore, 5 to 10 per cent for Taiwan, and 30 per cent for a yet-undetermined Western partner.
The lack of a formal decision on the western partner is still one of four doubts facing the AE-100 project. The other question marks are whether South Korea is still a player, if a 100-seater is really what the market needs, and whether the regional market is big enough for yet another player.
Beijing is remaining coy about selecting a western partner possibly because it is hoping for whatever leverage it can gain in Washington's annual review of China's most-favoured-nation status. Chinese officials concede the chances of selecting Europe's Aero International (Regional) are 'high' compared to Boeing, but refuse to rule out the US manufacturer. Chinese premier Li Peng's state visit to France in April appears to have boosted AI(R)'s chances over its US rival.
South Korea's role also remains uncertain. Seoul has reportedly softened its opposition to Beijing's demand for total assembly in China, but in return wants a bigger stake.
Analysts question the suitability of a 100-seater to the Chinese market. There is more support for a 200-seater because of China's rapid traffic growth, pilot shortage, crowded airports, and strained ATC systems.
Finally, despite Fokker's demise, other competitors loom within Asia itself. Indonesia has launched its own home-grown 100-seater jet project and Boeing has revived studies it shelved during its Asian Express bid. Boeing is again discussing its proposed 100-seater YS-X project with Japanese companies as well as Bombardier.
David Knibb
Source: Airline Business
