PAUL LEWIS / WASHINGTON DC
AIA chief warns that start of recovery for aerospace industry is still 12 months away
The US Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) is forecasting a 27% drop in civil aircraft sales by US manufacturers in 2003, on top of a 16% fall this year. The AIA also warns that the overall financial health of the US aerospace industry will not begin to recover for at least another 12 months.
AIA president and chief executive John Douglass, speaking at the association's annual year-end review, warned of a "creeping crisis" facing the US aerospace industry. Sales across all sectors, both civil and military, totalled $148.2 billion in 2002 - down from $153.1 billion in 2001. The figure is expected to fall further to $138.4 billion next year.
An 8.6% rise in US military aircraft and missile sales to $49.3 billion helped to offset the sharp drop in civil aircraft output as Boeing's production fell from 526 airliners in 2001 to 380 in 2002. This is projected to fall again to 275 deliveries in 2003. US civil sales next year are expected to drop to $31.5 billion, down $20 billion from 2001. "This is where the real crisis is developing for manufacturers," says Douglass.
Employment in the US aerospace industry plunged in the year, down 72,000 to 702,000 - almost half the number in 1990 and the lowest for over 50 years. "Another manifestation of the creeping crisis is employment," said Douglass, who claimed aerospace workforce unemployment was more than double the 6% national average.
AIA had previously predicted a pick-up in business by the end of this year, but now does not expect a recovery until late 2003 or 2004.
Douglass is urging action along the lines suggested in the recently completed report of the Commission on the Future of the US Aerospace Industry (Flight International, 26 November-2 December). This includes more research and development money, which for NASA totalled $14 billion this year compared to the $300 billion spent by the USA on entertainment, notes Douglass.
Source: Flight International