GRAHAM WARWICK / WASHINGTON DC
US manufacturers fared better than expected in 2003 according to provisional figures released by the Aerospace Industries Association (AIA). At $147.1 billion, sales will be almost $10 billion more than forecast a year ago, largely because of increased US defence spending. Slight growth is forecast for next year, with the recovery gaining momentum in 2005 and 2006.
Civil aircraft sales fell 20% to $33.7 billion and are forecast to continue their decline into 2005, then return to growth in late 2005/early 2006.
But AIA chief executive John Douglass is basing expectations for "good years towards the end of decade" on Boeing launching the 7E7 and production of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter beginning on schedule. "The downturn was shallower than predicted," he says.
Aerospace industry issues for the 2004 US presidential election include development of a plan to improve the global civil aviation system and fundamental reform of the US export licensing process, both of which are required to boost sales. Export licensing reform was a 2000 election promise by President Bush that was never implemented because of deeply ingrained resistance in Congress, Douglass says.
The AIA is also pushing for increased federal funding of aerospace research and development, already forecast to increase by 12% to 31.8 billion in 2006. "We are satisfied with the Department of Defense numbers, but we want an increase in civil aerospace R&D," says Douglass.
The $7 billion a year in NASA and Federal Aviation Administration R&D funding expected by 2006 is not enough to replace the Space Shuttle, renew NASA's ageing infrastructure and modernise the US national airspace system, he says.
Source: Flight International
