Paul Lewis/WASHINGTON DC
Boeing and the USAF are projecting a market demand for at least 10 civil variants of theC-17 military airlifter over the next decade, as part of a newly completed Commercial Application of Military Airlift Aircraft (CAMAA) study aimed at soliciting support from the commercial cargo market for sustaining current production rates beyond 2004.
The USAF and Boeing have jointly issued a request for information to gauge the response of the freighter industry to the proposed new public/private acquisition strategy. Interested carriers have been asked to meet with the government to hammer out a viable business case with the intention of signing launch customers for the proposed BC-17X by mid-year.
In return for purchasing the civil heavylifter, civil operators would be provided with a guaranteed level of US Department of Defense (DoD) business. This would cover up to 50% of utilisation in the first year, dropping to 13.7% by 2015 as demand for heavy outsize and short airstrip lift grows. Financial modelling by the study based on a $140 million per aircraft price tag suggests an internal rate of return of 15% for an operator over 12 years.
The DoD is offering an "up -front and/or annual revenue guarantee" for each aircraft to ensure availability as part of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet, and possibly, providing financiers with a "residual value buyback guarantee".
The CAMAA forecast is based on the heavy outsize market growing from $200m in 1999 to $1.5 billion by 2015 and the current Antonov An-124 fleet remaining static. Potential users of theBC-17X in addition to the DoD could include other government agencies, the United Nations, disaster relief agencies, as well as oil exploration, drilling, mining and the construction industry.
The BC-17X would also sustain C-17 production rates which will drop from the current 15 per year to just eight by 2004 without more orders. The USAF hopes that a combination of BC-17Xs and a follow-on multi-year buy of up 50 more C-17s will sustain production and avoid a hike in unit costs.
Source: Flight International
