The impact of the Iraq war, even if relatively short-lived, will add at least one year to commercial aviation's post-2001 recovery - particularly in the USA - warn forecasters.
"With the Iraq scenario, four years are out of your life before you get back to a break-even point," says General Electric market analysis manager Vern Thomas. Speaking at the Speednews suppliers conference in Los Angeles, Thomas said: "By the time you climb out of the hole in any given year, the world's going to need fewer aircraft than before. What's going to pull it back? You need double digit growth for several years, and that's not going to happen."
Airbus avoided forecasting firm numbers beyond the 300 deliveries scheduled for 2003, but hinted a downward revision may come this month. Boeing's 2003 delivery forecast of around 280 aircraft is expected to hold as "almost every one of those is sold", says market analysis director Tim Meskill, while 2004 is expected to see between 275 and 300 deliveries, "75% of which are on firm order". The company forecasts a slow climb to between 380 and 390 aircraft for 2005 and - if the effect of war is minimised - a solid climb to around 450 by 2006."This recovery will take place airline by airline," says Meskill.
Dramatic delivery reductions are forecast by others. Walsh Aviation president John Walsh sees net additions of 100-seat-plus aircraft to the world fleet plummeting to around 125 in 2003. "Theoretically, all of the new aircraft delivered over the last five years are surplus in terms of traffic demand," he says.
Source: Flight International
