MAX KINGSLEY-JONES / LONDON
Air travel is only slowly recovering from the double blows of 11 September and the SARS virus. As our survey shows, the result is virtual stagnation in fleet growth
With air travel remaining in the doldrums, this year's world airliner census shows that fleet growth is stagnant. There is good news for Airbus because it has taken a historic lead over Boeing for the first time, with its A320 family toppling the 737 Classic series (-300/400/500) in the airliner single-fleet rankings.
Fleet growth has slowed to a trickle as the number of withdrawals and retirements almost cancels out new deliveries and reactivations. It is these prevailing market conditions that also make this year's census the last to include a supersonic airliner - all bets are off as to when a successor to Concorde might appear in the list.
The result is that the number of Western-built jet and turboprop aircraft qualifying for the census (compiled using the Airclaims CASE database) has increased by 1.4% (290 units) to 20,925. Before the downturn that followed the 11 September terrorist attacks, the fleet was growing at around 5% a year.
Airbus takes pole position for the first time in the aircraft type rankings, with the A320 family now the biggest fleet of a single type in operation (1,946 aircraft). The loser is the 737 Classic, which has been the long-standing leader, but is now relegated to second place. However, if the three 737 family fleets are combined, the twinjet is still the dominant force in the airliner world, with close to 3,900 aircraft in operation.
The big mover in the wrong direction is the Boeing 727, with its fleet size falling by 17% and by two places in the rankings.
Last year the regional aircraft rankings were headed by a jet for the first time and now the sector is dominated by them. The Bombardier CRJ100/200 spends its second year in top position, and the Embraer ERJ-145 family has jumped to second place after displacing the ATR and Bombardier Dash 8 turboprop fleets - both of which have declined.
The airliner fleet distribution pie chart illustrates how the North/South American fleet dominates other regions, accounting for half of the world's airliners. This is the only region, however, to have recorded a decline over the past 12 months - albeit by fewer than 50 units.
The slowdown in output over the past year has slowed the decline in the total order backlog. Having fallen 15% between the 2001 and 2002 censuses, it has dropped by only 5% in the past 12 months to 2,900. The only region not showing a fall this year is Asia, Australasia and the Middle East, which was the only sector not harmed hugely by the post-11 September slump - although it has had its own crisis with the outbreak of the SARS virus earlier this year.
The number of idle jet airliners (all operators except military) continues to run at around 2,100, as it has since the drastic capacity cuts that began in late 2001. But there is some good news - the active fleet has been steadily, albeit gradually, increasing from a low of 14,200 aircraft in late 2001 to the current 15,300 units. As reported in last year's census, the world's active jet fleet took a year to recover to the pre-September 2001 level of 14,680 aircraft.
Around 950 new jet and turboprop aircraft have been delivered to airlines since the last census a year ago, but over that same period around 500 older types have been permanently withdrawn. Others may have been returned to their owners - and if they are not classed as airlines, they will not be included in the census data.
Spare parts
Over the past 12 months, there has been an effort by some owners to realise the capital they have tied up in their stored equipment, leading to a number of aircraft being parted for spares. Although the bulk of these are the older, early-generation airliners such as the Boeing 727, 737-200 and McDonnell Douglas DC-9, the signs are that some later-generation machines will also face the axe. Several 737-300/400s have already been parted out, and more are likely to follow, as owners take a realistic view of the market.
Widebody retirements continue to increase, with a large number of the first-generation Airbus A300Bs, Boeing 747-100/200s, Lockheed L-1011 TriStars and McDonnell Douglas DC-10s having been reduced to scrap. The continued slump has recently forced owners of younger widebodies to take dramatic steps, with the first Airbus A310s and Boeing 767s coming under the metal trader's torch.
The bar chart above provides an order comparison between Airbus and Boeing by region (for aircraft on order by, or placed with, airlines). Airbus has established itself in a dominant position, with more than 55% of the 2,042 aircraft on firm order. The European airframer holds the lead in each region except North/South America, which it shares equally with Boeing.
The US manufacturer holds the larger proportion of the multinational/undisclosed category because it has a policy of counting some orders in its backlog before the contract is announced. Airbus generally waits for formal confirmation before adding orders to its backlog, which means the customer identity is usually known.
The CIS-built airliner fleet continues to stagnate, as data compiled by Russian aviation specialist Paul Duffy shows. The head count has fallen by around 100 aircraft to 2,850 units, as output of new airliners is still slow. The orderbook for Russian and Ukrainian airliners has grown by 50% since last year to around 100 aircraft.
The state of the CIS fleet is reflected by the top 10 fleet ranking, which is again made up almost entirely of out-of-production types. Headed by the TupolevTu-154M, the youngest design in the list is the eighth-placed Yakovlev Yak-42.
Source: Flight International
