The millennium bug is already causing some unpleasant stomach upsets as it dawns on the world's airlines and suppliers that time is fast running out before the ultimate deadline on 1 January 2000.
It still remains anyone's guess as to who will make it and who will not. No-one can guarantee that they are completely millennium-proof. While the airline industry may already have done enough to rule out major safety concerns, there is almost unlimited scope for nasty surprises from some unexpected directions.
Anything with a microchip is at risk from paralysis and that could occur anywhere along the industry's supply chain. While manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus have been working on the problem for years and safety critical air traffic control systems are being overhauled, there is still the risk that other non-aviation equipment could fail. For example, some cars and buses may not start, which in turn could cause staff shortages at airlines or airports. Even something as simple as a runway light could be at risk. In short, the millennium bug is potentially the most virulent carrier of mayhem known to man.
The problem dates back to the 1960s when computer programmers allocated two digits for the date field to save disc space. That means '2000' appears in many systems as '00' which is indistinguishable from 1900.
But solutions need to be in place well before that date. Ideally most year 2000 measures should be ready by the start of next year to allow a full business cycle for testing. While few air transport entities are likely to meet that date, their first test could be on 9 September 1999 when the dateline 9/9/99 will instruct many computers to shut down.
The best cure it seems is for companies to share as much information as possible with each other and their suppliers before the deadlines hit. That process is being championed by the International Air Transport Association, with the Year 2000 project launched in April, but there are still glaring differences in the level of Y2Kawareness around the world.
Much of Africa, with some notable exceptions, seems to be under the impression that Iata will fix the systems and little else is being done. South America scores high on the awareness scale but only the major suppliers are certain to be ready in time.
The attention of the Asia-Pacific carriers has been deflected by the economic crisis in the region and interest in the problem is low. In contrast North America is taking a typically open approach to the problem, sharing valuable information on airports and suppliers, although the USFederal Aviation Administration remains candid about progress in meeting its tight schedule. Europe is talking less openly, partly for fear of creating a public scare.
Iata's initiative should help. It aims to assess readiness among third party suppliers, including manufacturers, airport and ATC authorities, and to share the information with its airline members. What it does not aim to do is fix supplier problems, stresses John Boggs, relationship director industry finance at Iata. 'We are not fixing anything. That is a common misconception among regional associations,' he says. While Iata will monitor any remedial action that is taken, the project's US$20 million budget is insufficient itself to fund equipment overhauls.
The costs of Y2K compliance will be massive. Iata estimates that its airline members alone are spending $1.6 billion to bring their own systems up to date, while similar programmes are being pushed by other industry bodies, such as the Airports Council International.
Funding concerns have tended to focus on less-developed parts of the world - the United Nations is worried enough to be considering a Y2K resolution calling on member states to give the millennium bug the highest priority. Yet, as Boggs points out, countries which have less new technology are also likely to have less of a problem. In less congested air space, for example, reverting to manual operations should pose fewer difficulties. Neither do such countries have the same legacy of older non-compliant systems.
Taking Y2K measures may be costing carriers like American or Delta Air Lines $100 million apiece. But the cost of not getting the problem fixed will be higher still in terms of lost business and public confidence.
Source: Airline Business
