Andrew Doyle/TECHNICAL REPORTER
Kevin O'Toole/BUSINESS EDITOR
THE GOOD NEWS, at least for manufacturers, is that aircraft deliveries reached the bottom in 1995. The less good news is that the upturn in 1996 will be moderate.
The big three, airframe manufacturers (Airbus, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas), will finish 1995 with something less than 350 jet-airliner shipments. That figure is less than half of the tally at the height of the delivery peak in 1991/2, and the weakest performance in nearly a decade.
Admittedly, the figures have been artificially depressed by the Boeing strike, which held up production of around 50 aircraft, but even without this hiccup, 1995 would have been a lean year - a final delayed effect of airline recession from the early 1990s. Such are the cycles of the civil-aircraft business.
The outlook for 1996 and beyond is for a steady, but unspectacular, rise in shipments, possibly climbing towards 600 by the end of the decade.
The picture of a slow, controlled recovery is backed up by the flow of new orders. Figures for 1995 were certainly more respectable than in the dark years of recession when, at worst, there were more cancellations than new business. There is little evidence, however, that this is the beginning of another great ordering spree.
Despite the health of its current recovery, the airline industry appears to be in no mood to repeat the mistakes of the past, with another uncontrolled boom. Barring disasters - and the threat of harsh new noise and emission controls could be one - the market should remain stable.
Meanwhile, manufacturers will be busy looking at the next series of stretches, shrinks and new derivatives to help round off their ranges.
Boeing has now determined in detail how it would stretch and re-wing the 747. A launch in 1996 looks possible provided that customers come forward. To date only a handful of airlines, with British Airways at the fore, have expressed an interest, but in the long term, the auguries look good. Around 40% of expenditure over the next 20 years is expected to be on aircraft of 747-400 size or above.
Airbus continues to study the A3XX large airliner. As a new project, the A3XX should be able to offer the advantage of direct operating costs, although development costs will force Airbus to think hard about a launch.
Boeing will also step up studies into possible derivatives of its 757 and 767 during 1996. These will focus principally on stretched versions of both aircraft, but with a longer-ranger version of the 757 another possibility.
Whether Boeing commits to full-scale development of these derivatives in 1996 seems less likely, at least until the new 737, 777 and 747 products are safely in service.
Airbus has scheduled a stretched and possibly re-engined version of its A340, the -400, to become available to airlines around the year 2000, and this derivative is now the project most likely to be launched by the four-nation consortium in 1996.
McDonnell Douglas must win new business for its MD-11 during 1996 if the type is to stay in production, and the company is studying stretched and longer-range versions to increase sales. Whether MDC can capitalise on its initial sales success with the just-launched MD-95 will also become evident in 1996.
While airframe manufacturers study a host of new derivatives, the engine makers too will follow with a range of new prospective products, possibly through industrial alliances.
Source: Flight International
