Mike Martin
Airbus Industrie and Boeing unveiled their latest market forecasts at the show yesterday. There's broad agreement on the basic value of the business over the next 20 years, but interesting differences of view.Lift-off for a new standard in style, being set by Gulf Air which is taking delivery of this, its first Airbus Industrie A330-200, during the show. The first of six on firm order and six on option for the airline, it has been configured with just 243 seats in an aircraft capable of accommodating 381. The three-class configuration will feature 12 first class, 24 business class and 207 economy class, giving flights between The Gulf and London a touch of the magic carpet.
More than 15,500 new passenger and cargo aircraft worth $1.3 trillion will be needed between 1999 and 2018, according to Airbus Industrie's new Global Market Forecast unveiled at the show yesterday.
Airlines will need 14,750 new passenger and combi aircraft from 70 seats upwards and 750 new cargo aircraft with average payloads of 52 tonnes.
The forecast, which tracks growth and fleet development of 359 airlines, covers the cargo market for the first time.
The forecast predicts significant movement of older aircraft. More than 9,900 older passenger and cargo aircraft will be sold on the secondary market or retired. Of these, 2,300 will be converted to freighters and 4,400 aircraft will be taken out of service.
Airbus researchers remain bullish about the prospects for the very large aircraft sector - the area the company plans to move into with its proposed A3XX aircraft. Adam Brown, vice-president, forecasting and strategic planning, said yesterday: "Demand for this new category will prove to be extremely robust in the face of changing market conditions." With a prediction that aircraft movements will increase by 93% over the period, airport congestion will be a growing challenge.
"We think that congestion can't be avoided," says Brown. "It will continue to be a very powerful factor."
Revenue
Passenger traffic - in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) - is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 5% and cargo traffic - in freight kilometre tonnes (FKT) - growth will average 5.9% a year.
Regional RPK forecasts remain largely unchanged, with China expected to grow by 7.5%, Asia-Pacific by 5.8% and Europe by 5.4%. The average number of seats per aircraft will grow by 38 to 218 seats.
The passenger fleet will nearly double from 10,000 at the end of 1998 to 19,106 by the end of 2018, while the dedicated freighter fleet will grow from 1,450 to 3,400 aircraft during the same period, says the forecast.
FTKs on dedicated cargo services will grow at an average rate of 6.3% against 5.5% growth for cargo carried in passenger aircraft.
Total deliveries from all manufacturers will add up to an annual market of $65 billion.
Source: Flight Daily News
