AIRBUS INDUSTRIE'S forecast of substantial demand for a new large aircraft (NLA) with more than 600 seats is based on an internal study showing a high concentration of sales to a handful of operators.
The predictions, which were not released in Airbus' Global Market Forecast (Flight International, 29 March - 4 April), suggest that just nine airlines would account for 57% of the aircraft.
Airbus is forecasting that demand for new large aircraft (NLA) by the end of 2014 will include 387 600-seaters, 246 800-seaters and 231 1,000-seaters - a total of 864 aircraft.
Vice-president of strategic planning Adam Brown reveals that Airbus envisages the demand coming from 46 airlines - nine in Europe with a total need for 107 aircraft, eight in North America wanting 178 aircraft, 23 in Asia-Pacific and China with a need for 564 aircraft and six elsewhere wanting 15 aircraft.
Individual airline requirements range from one to 100 aircraft, with an average of 18.8. Brown notes that Asia/Pacific accounts for 65% of the total.
The overall picture tends to disguise, however, the true concentration of the projected orders. Brown says that one carrier in Europe, two in North America and six in Asia-Pacific would need more than 30 aircraft each - reaching a total of 488 units, which is 57% of the total market. Japanese carriers alone would take 170 machines.
The Airbus member companies and Boeing are due to decide in June, whether to continue collaborative studies, or retreat into their separate projects.
Source: Flight International
