Three of the leading airliner manufacturers say that customer deferral activity is stabilising or even slowing, and 2009 production rates look set to achieve the delivery targets that were set at the start of the year.
Boeing chief executive James McNerney says that deferrals have slowed in the third quarter of the year. Speaking during the company's second quarter earnings call, he characterised the drop in activity as a "meaningful" one, but added that he would treat that data cautiously.
Embraer chief executive Fred Curado echoes McNerney's view, saying that market conditions appear to have stabilised. Late last year and early this year there was "a constant movement of deferrals and this has stopped", he says.
Boeing's year-to-date deferrals total has topped 130. Sixty came in the first quarter and an additional 70 since April. However, it remains on course to deliver 480-485 airliners this year, up from the strike-affected 2008 tally of 375.
Louis Gallois, chief executive of Airbus parent EADS, declines to disclose the number of airliner deferrals it has suffered, but says "it was active in the first half of the year. We are not seeing an increase of the rhythm of deferral demands for the time being."
Gallois concedes that the number of Airbus cancellations this year, which stands at 22 so far, "is almost surprisingly limited". He adds that while the level of deferrals is higher, "it's not destabilising our backlog" and Airbus's 2009 production remains on course to match or surpass the 483 deliveries in 2008.
McNerney says it is difficult to judge whether the slowdown in deferrals is indicator that a recovery is beginning, warning that "until we see long-term improvement [I] would suggest treat it as one data point right now, be somewhat encouraged by it but we all want to see more".
Curado concurs that it is too early to predict whether a turnaround has started: "This is a plateau - not necessarily the bottom. The signals we've seen are too faint to interpret as a recovery or even as the worst is behind us."
Embraer has cut commercial output this year by 29% from 162 aircraft to around 115. Curado says he is optimistic that Embraer will have "a stable 2010 and be able to resume growth in 2011", but "until we have solid economic recovery it's going to be really tough on the industry".
Gallois says that unlike previous crises the market is "not in a panic situation - so far", but concedes: "I don't know for the future."
Source: Flight International
