Julian Moxon/PARIS
The Airbus Industrie supervisory board has authorised the consortium to carry out a limited "pre-commercial launch" of the 550-seat A3XX to test the market before a full commercial go-ahead in the first half of next year (Flight International, 24-30 November).
Airbus declines to reveal the number of commitments it needs to secure full commercial launch - saying only that "it is a mix of quantity and quality". Most sources speculate, however, that it would need firm assurances of an initial market for between 30 and 40 aircraft, representing a year's production at four aircraft a month.
Airlines likely to be canvassed include British Airways, Air France, Singapore Airlines, United Airlines and FedEx. BA has "no near-term plans to order the A3XX", but Air France president Jean-Cyril Spinetta said recently there was "definitely a market for the A3XX".
The limited go-ahead comes after the board agreed the "technical specifications of the A3XX have been achieved according to airline requirements". This means essentially that Airbus is convinced it can meet its target of 15% lower direct operating costs than those for the Boeing 747, while providing a 20% return on investment.
The go-ahead came as US market analysts Lehman Brothers released a new report on the market prospects for the A3XX, which finds that "contrary to the concensus [in the USA], we estimate that the A3XX programme economics, when combined with Airbus system-wide economics, are favourable if deliveries over 20 years are in the 530-aircraft range". It adds that with orders for 665 aircraft over the same timescale, the programme "could be a strong success".
The report prices the A3XX-100 at between $188 million and $227 million (1999 dollars) and finds the programme could have an operating margin of 8.3% with sales of 528 aircraft, rising to 19.2% with 790 sales.
Financial backing for the $12 billion programme is based around a 33% reimbursable contribution from the partner European governments - the maximum allowed under the 1992 bilateral agreement on state backing for aeronautical programmes between the European Union and USA, along with 40% from risk-sharing partners.
Source: Flight International
