The International Air Transport Association has warned that the surge in traffic in the first eight months of 2004 is not enough to offset spiralling fuel costs and the world's airlines are set to lose as much as $4 billion this year, writes Max Kingsley-Jones.
IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani says the rise of 18.7% in international passenger traffic and 14.2% in international cargo traffic over the first eight months of 2004 "is well beyond our expectations, but will not mitigate the high cost of fuel. We expect the airline industry [domestic and international] will lose between $3 billion and $4 billion in 2004."
The association points out that this year's high growth figures are partially exaggerated by the comparison to a period in 2003 that was severely depressed because of the SARS crisis. But it adds that the indications of healthy traffic growth "are clearly evident in the August performance". Year-on-year for August, passenger traffic grew by 10.8%, while freight was up 13.6%.
IATA points out that comparisons with the year 2000, which was the last year not affected by any industry crises, confirms that several years of growth have been lost, with January-August 2004 passenger traffic only 8.4% above 2000 levels for the same period.
Bisignani says the industry has "done a great job" in reducing non-fuel unit costs, which fell 2.5% in 2003, and look set to drop a further 3% this year, but warns: "The high price of fuel is eating up these gains and more."
He has called for IATA's partners and governments to work in tandem to overcome the problems.
"Airports and air navigation providers must achieve the same efficiency gains as the airlines. Governments must come to grips with more structural issues like security, insurance and liberalisation," he says.
Source: Flight International
