Bilateral talks between the US and Japan, which were set to resume in Tokyo in late September, are likely to result in the clearance of two codeshare alliances. But All Nippon Airways could emerge as the real victor as it is finally recognised as an incumbent carrier, enjoying almost unlimited traffic rights.

At the last set of talks, which concluded in the US at the end of August, both sides put forward proposals for a four-year agreement. The US wants this to be a transition to full open skies, but Japan appears to be holding fast.

In anticipation of a deal that recognises codesharing, Japan's two major international carriers are preparing the ground to swing their alliances with their respective US partners into a higher gear. Japan Airlines is understood to have reached agreement with American Airlines on codeshare services between Chicago and Tokyo. JAL and American already have frequent flyer and cargo links.

ANA is believed to have arranged codeshares with Delta Air Lines that would include the key Tokyo-Los Angeles route. Management is not commenting, but ANA has strengthened its US staff in preparation for an increase in activity following an agreement. More significantly for ANA, the new deal is expected finally to grant ANA incumbent carrier status, putting it on par with JAL, FedEx, United and Northwest Airlines.

A compromise deal that produces a bilateral is likely to please most carriers, although Northwest Airlines is demanding full open skies and JAL will not welcome its rival ANA getting incumbent status. 'We have the unsettling feeling the deal has already been done,' says one airline official.

T Ballantyne/K Walker

Source: Airline Business