Chris Seymour, head of market analysis at Flightglobal consultancy Ascend, reviews last year's orders and considers how many open slots are left if you want to order aircraft?
In 2012, the world's passenger airlines recorded traffic growth of 5.3%, which was below the 5.9% seen in 2011, but still ahead of the 4% extra capacity. Traffic growth was largely driven by a good year for both the Asia-Pacific and (perhaps surprisingly) European markets, while emerging regions such as the Middle East and Latin America recorded the highest growth rates, although it was from asmaller base.
This continuing profitability and desire to drive down costs by using more efficient aircraft led to another good year for the original equipment manufacturers, as airlines and lessors ordered around 2,650 new jets. There were 223 cancellations (8%) mainly as a result of airline right-sizing, airline failures or the disappearance of some speculative lessor orders.
Thus, there was a net gain of just over 2,400 jet orders in 2012 (worth $256 billion at list prices), the third best year in the past decade. Annual orders have certainly recovered from the slowdown led by the fuel and then financial crisis that resulted in a low point of 669 orders in 2009.
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Looking at the net orders in 2012, it was certainly the "Year of the Max", following the "Year of the neo". With over 900 orders, the Boeing 737 Max outsold the Airbus A320neo family by almost 2:1. But this was really Boeing in "catch-up" mode. The current 737NG and A320ceo programmes still took almost 500 orders, while Comac recorded 115 for the C919, Irkut had 35 for the MS-21 and Bombardier secured 35 for the CSeries.
Indeed, 84% of 2012's net orders were for narrowbody types.
The best-selling widebody was the Boeing 777, which had a net gain of 68, ahead of the Airbus A330 at 47 (which suffered 34 cancellations). Of the new programmes, the Airbus A350 recorded 27 more orders. However, the 49 new orders for the Boeing 787 were offset by cancellations from both airlines and lessors, resulting in a net loss of 12 orders.
The year 2012 was also a modest one for the large aircraft sector, with just nine orders for Airbus A380s and one net order for the Boeing 747-8. Freighter orders from FedEx boosted the Boeing 767, with a gain of 22 orders.
The 100 orders from US-based SkyWest for the MRJ regional jet was key for Mitsubishi, as was Delta's order for 40 CRJ900s that boosted Bombardier's total to 73. Embraer recorded a net gain of 47 for the E-Jet, its lowest total for three years.
Deliveries
The delivery of 1,274 new jets to airlines and lessors in 2012 was a new record and 12% higher than 2011. This was mainly driven by a 42% increase in widebody deliveries to 305, accounting for a 24% share of total delivery numbers. For the first time in 10 years, Boeing out-delivered Airbus by a small margin - 579 versus 576.
Narrowbody deliveries increased by 10% to 850, led by the A320 family with 444, ahead of the 737NG with 401.
In the widebody sector, Boeing reversed its previous year's position, delivering 178 versus Airbus's 125. There were 46 deliveries of the 787 in its first full year of production, but the 777 was the main Boeing product with 83 delivered, ahead of the 747-8 at 23 and the 767 at 26. Airbus delivered 95 A330s and 30 A380s.
The Embraer 190 - with 60 deliveries - led the regional jet sector, but overall, the 119 deliveries were 20% lower than in 2011. Bombardier delivered just 13 of its CRJs, its lowest ever for a full-production year. Embraer had a flat year at 106 deliveries, while Sukhoi delivered a modest eight Superjets.
Backlog, forecast and open slots
These high levels of new orders have pushed the firm backlog to another record, at over 10,000, which represents 50% of the current fleet - another record level. This backlog equates to around seven years of full production and is driving the increase in build rates. However, it must be remembered that some of these orders are for aircraft deliveries 10 years into the future - representing the desire of airlines to secure slots for newer generation aircraft.
Looking at the immediate future, the forecast 1,400 deliveries in 2013 will be focused on narrowbodies, with production now at around 80 aircraft every month. Production rates for the A330 and 777 have also increased and around 100 aircraft of each type are expected to be delivered. There is obvious uncertainty about how many 787s will be delivered - the forecast was for 70, around 21% of the widebody total.
There is some concern for the regional jet sector (Embraer sees lower levels of E-Jet deliveries), although new orders from US Majors are starting to drive an increase in backlog.
This record backlog has led to rising deliveries, which are set to pass 1,500 next year and increase to 1,800 in 10 years' time - definitely a challenge for the supply chain. In 2013, the first flights of two new programmes, the A350 and CSeries, are expected, while the MRJ, C919, A320neo, 737 Max and MS-21 will follow in the next three years.
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Finally, based on the firm backlog and our forecast of deliveries, we have estimated how many "open slots" there may be at the start of 2013 for customers to place new orders.
In the next three years, there are virtually no available slots for narrowbodies or widebodies (barring any swaps, cancellations or deferrals), and even slots for regional jets are disappearing as US Majors place new orders.
Even in the next five years there are limited open slots, mainly for regional jets, the current generation widebodies and the last of the current generation narrowbodies - the A320 and 737NG (although few of these remain). Any significant numbers of slots will only become available at the end of the decade, especially for the newer generation types.
We estimate that around 60% of forecast production in the next 10 years has already been accounted for.
This sends out a strong signal that the world's airlines are continuing their drive to increased efficiency.
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
