ARIE EGOZI / TEL AVIV
With war in the Gulf looking increasingly likely, Israel may have to defend itself against Iraqi ballistic missile attacks. Can it cope?
As the world moves ever closer to a second Gulf War, thoughts in Israeli capital Tel Aviv are concentrating on the potential threat of Saddam Hussein' stactical ballistic missiles.
In 1991, Saddam's response to the coalition forces was to attack Israel, hoping to provoke a response that would cause a rift among the nations - including other Arab countries - lined up against Iraq.
Now the Israeli air force is exercising its anti-missile missile batteries to ensure they are fully worked up ahead of any potential hostilities. The Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) Arrow 2 is the world's only operational ballistic-missile defence system.
The threat to Israel is also taken seriously by Washington, which has deployed US Army Raytheon Patriot PAC-2 missile batteries to Israel, while US Navy Aegis anti-air warfare warships in the eastern Mediterranean are also able to counter ballistic missiles. In addition, Germany has handed over two PAC-2 batteries.
The size and strength of Iraq's ballistic missile force are open to debate. AUK assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction issued last year said the regime had retained 20 Al-Husseins, a derivative of the ubiquitous Soviet-era SS-1 Scud (Flight International, 1-7 October 2001).
Tel Aviv's intelligence experts believe if Iraq is attacked, it will launch salvos of missiles in an attempt to swamp Israel's defences. Israel, meanwhile, is hoping the Arrow anti-tactical ballistic missile system will destroy the incoming weapons before they do any harm.
In 1991, Israel was hit by 40 Al-Husseins. The USArmy rushed Patriot systems to Israel, but failed to destroy any of the incoming missiles. The Arrow programme had been launched three years earlier, in 1988, following US acceptance that IAI had the basic building blocks for the system. Under an agreement between Israel and the USA, the latter funded 85% of the missile's development. The other system components were funded by Israel. Total investment in the programme is estimated at $2.3 billion.
Chemical threat
The threat from Iraq was significant in determining the characteristics of the Arrow system. Before the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq had accumulated ballistic missiles and upgraded them, with a parallel effort to acquire chemical and biological capabilities. The threat of the long-range Scud-B missiles and the possibility of them carrying chemical and biological payloads dictated a solution with a high probability of destroying incoming missiles far from Israeli airspace.
The result was the Arrow. The latest Arrow 2 missile is relatively large, because the system is not required to be mobile, being designed to defend Israel from fixed sites. A proximity fuze combined with a fragmentation warhead maximises the missile's interception abilities and ensures the destruction of all types of warhead, say the system's designers.
According to Israeli intelligence, Iraq has developed three main types of warhead - high explosive, unitary chemical and chemical bomblets. All three warheads, especially chemical, call for a high-altitude, high interception rate. The exact performance of the Arrow 2 missile is classified, but programme sources say the interception is achieved outside the Earth's atmosphere.
High-altitude kill
Each Arrow 2 launcher holds six canistered missiles. These can be launched separately, or in salvos, as demonstrated in the latest test in January. The Arrow 2 is launched vertically, giving each battery a 360¡ coverage, and acquires its trajectory a few seconds after the hot ejection, turning immediately to compensate for the vertical launch.
After booster burnout, and a coast phase, the sustainer is ignited, taking the missile to an intercept geometry. During the flight, the system's Green Pine detection and fire-control radar determines the intercept point and uplinks the data to the missile. After the Arrow 2 is brought to the best "viewpoint" on the incoming missile, its electro-optical sensor acquires the target to allow the very near pass that will activate the interceptor's fragmentation warhead.
The combination of the Green Pine radar's uplinked data and the Arrow 2's target sensor have provided such accuracy that intercept tests have resulted in unplanned kinetic kills. According to some sources, the Green Pine radar can track ballistic missiles from a range of up to 500km (270nm) while intercept can occur 140km away at an altitude of 37 miles (60km).
The Arrow 2 reaches a velocity of Mach 6 and can be manoeuvred to ensure the closest interception. Some of these manoeuvres were demonstrated during the last test.
In 1991, some Scud-B missiles disintegrated in the final trajectory phase, creating multiple targets on the screens of the Patriot radar systems. According to the Israeli air force, most of the missiles disintegrated at below 59,000ft (18,000m), a problem the Arrow 2 solves by intercepting the missile at a higher altitude.
Interoperability
Green Pine is an L-band, phased-array, dual-mode radar that in recent years has detected tests of Scud missiles in Syria and "other events" involving missiles launches in the Middle East. The Citron Tree fire control centre (FCC) is capable of handling multiple, simultaneous interceptions. The FCC has interoperability features that will be put to the test if the Arrow 2 has to defend Israeli airspace against Iraqi missiles. The FCC is housed in 12m (40ft) shelters accommodating 10 battle stations. Launches are controlled by the Hazelnut Tree launcher control centre, an automatic battle management system that can control up to eight launchers. It also serves as the missile's maintenance and diagnostic centre.
Two Arrow 2 systems are already deployed in central Israel and a third will join them soon. According to Boaz Levy, Arrow programme manager, the two operational systems will provide Israel with protection against the current threat.
The January test was the first of a series intended to evaluate the system's performance against the next generation of incoming threats. Officially, Israel does not specify these threats, but sources say they include longer-range missiles and that the January test was part of the Arrow system improvement programme (ASIP) being carried out jointly by Israel and the USA.
The Arrow was developed for the unique defence needs of Israel. But since the programme began, other countries fearing ballistic missile threats, such as South Korea and Turkey, have shown interest in the system. Export of the system, however, would require US approval and is not currently planned.
The programme's technologies, however, are considered lucrative for missile manufacturers. This has led to a joint production agreement between IAI and Boeing, the initial aim of which is to co-produce the missile at both companies to allow the USA to assist Israel in purchasing more missiles. But Boeing sees long-term advantages of participating in a programme that has resulted in a unique ballistic-missile defence system.
Two-pronged defence
Israel plans to base its missile defence on two systems, the Arrow and a boost-phase intercept unmanned air vehicle (UAV).
This turboprop-powered UAV, being developed by IAI, will be the size of a business jet and will have a take-off weight of 3,000-4,000kg. Its payload will include a sensor package and it will use data fusion techniques to detect the most threatening launch target. Communication will be via satellite datalink, but, if that fails, the UAV will still be able to complete its mission and return to base.
The UAV's missiles, being developed by Rafael based on current weapons, will have multiple homing sensors to ensure destruction of the missile in different phases of launch. However, until this system is operational, the Arrow is the only defence to the ballistic-missile threat.
Source: Flight International
