Boeing has increased its forecast for the number of new commercial jets it believes China will require over the next 20 years to 6,330 in its latest current market outlook.
The figure compares to 6,020 from last year’s forecast, and Boeing’s vice-president of marketing Randy Tinseth says that the growth reflects strong growth in underlying demand.
"Over the next 20 years, China's commercial airplane fleet will nearly triple: from 2,570 airplanes in 2014 to 7,210 airplanes in 2034, with more than 70% of these deliveries accommodating growth," he says.
Boeing expects the majority of the new aircraft will be single-aisle jets, with Boeing seeing demand for 4,630, compared to 4,340 aircraft last year. That will see carriers from China account for around 25-50% of the narrowbody market in 20 years, against around 8% at present.
Tinseth says that new visa policies and the growth of the middle class are expected to accelerate demand for widebodies, albeit mostly at the smaller end of the scale.
The manufacturer expects 1,510 new widebody aircraft to be ordered by Chinese carriers, up slightly from last year’s forecast of 1,480. The lion’s share of those aircraft are expected to be in the 200-300 seat segment, which will account for 810 aircraft, while there will be demand for 650 300-400 seat jets.
Boeing has cut its view however on the 400 seats and above market however, forecasting demand for only 50 units, compared to 60 the year prior.
Overall, the manufacturer expects that China will account for 16.7% of the global demand for 38,050 new aircraft out to 2034.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
