Boeing's latest annual market forecast reveals even higher demand for single-aisles and fewer sales of high-capacity aircraft such as the 747-8 and Airbus A380.
The 2013-2032 current market outlook predicts 35,280 new aircraft deliveries worth $4.8 trillion over the next two decades.
Compared with its last 20-year forecast, Boeing sees overall single-aisle deliveries growing by 5% to 24,670. Medium-sized widebody output remains essentially flat at 7,850 units over 20 years. But projected delivery of large widebodies declines by 4% to 760, Boeing says.
The combined forces of annual passenger traffic growth, hunger by airlines for more fuel efficiency and fleet replacements sustain the current spike in delivery volume and even grow output over the 20-year forecast.
Boeing's forecast assumes an annual delivery rate of more than 1,760 aircraft over the next decades, outpacing today's record levels of around 1,250.
Despite the assumption of ever-increasing production rates, Boeing vice-president of marketing Randy Tinseth insists the company's researchers still see no signs of a bubble forming in the aircraft order market.
"The demand we see in the market is absolutely real," Tinseth says.
Tinseth points to four market indicators: world traffic growth outpacing fleet capacity, airlines reporting record high load factors, rising aircraft utilization rates and dramatically-increasing aircraft retirements.
Those four data points and strong demand from customers persuaded Boeing to boost monthly production rates to 8.3 for the 777, 38 for the 737 family and seven for the 787.
Boeing plans to increase 787 output to 10 by the end of the year and 737 deliveries to 42 by the second quarter of 2014.
More recently, Boeing officials have not ruled out the possibility of further increasing production of the 787 beyond 10 per month and increasing 737 production to as many as 60 per month.
"We've been increasing our production rates and we'll continue to see upward pressure on our production rates," Tinseth says.
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
