Canadian manufacturer prepares for Paris air show expecting barrage of questions over proposed airliner's future
Having originally tipped the Paris air show as the launch event for the CSeries programme, Bombardier instead is to arrive at the event facing increasing questions from industry analysts about the project's business case.
Launch of the four-model CSeries family is now scheduled for September, allowing president new commercial aircraft programme Gary Scott more time to recruit an engine manufacturer and to sign deals for a reported goal of 50-100 commercial orders.
The delay has not helped to silence critics of Bombardier's plan to introduce short- and long-range variants of five-abreast, 110- and 130-seat narrowbodies after 2010. News that Bombardier is in discussions with Pratt & Whitney on a variant of the existing PW6000, rather than a new-build powerplant, also has raised questions about the feasibility of the CSeries design goal to lower operating costs by 15%.
John Walsh, a Maryland-based aerospace consultant, says Bombardier has made things difficult by targeting one of the airline industry's most challenging markets. "Part of what they discuss is that it's an unserved market," says Walsh. "That in fact is not the case...a lot have tried it, but have lost money and gone bankrupt. Those that have done well have only managed to sell 500 aircraft."
One major market innovation is Bombardier's plan to build a 110-seater with transcontinental range, seeking to enable airlines to bring new markets into other hub and spoke systems or link smaller city pairs. However, Walsh contends: "I don't know who really wants to do this with a five-abreast aircraft."
There is also debate about Bombardier's projections for market demand, which assumes orders for mainline fleet replacements, as well as low-fare carriers seeking 100-seat capacity aircraft and regionals upgrading to larger aircraft. Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst for the Virginia-based Teal Group, says Airbus and Boeing should continue to dominate even this market because they can build smaller variants of their larger aircraft for marginal cost.
"And Bombardier wants to compete with a new aircraft against their marginal cost?" Aboulafia questions.
In addition to the doubts about the business case, Bombardier has had to overcome a series of political, financial and technical hurdles for the programme in the past year. Yet the company has managed to complete financial loan packages with Canada and the UK, as well as start talks with P&W after two other potential engine suppliers – CFM International and International Aero Engines – withdrew from negotiations.
STEPHEN TRIMBLE/WASHINGTON DC
Source: Flight International
