Despite war, disease and security alerts, passenger traffic appears to have stayed stable in 2003 and most are finally predicting a strong upturn in the year ahead. Airbus and Boeing too believe that the bottom of the cycle has been reached.
IATA and ICAO both predict a steady recovery in traffic this year. IATA is expecting "a bounce-back of 7-8%" for international passenger traffic this year, says IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani, with Asia leading the way. On a global basis, ICAO president Assad Kotaite says that overall traffic is expected to increase by about 4% this year and at the rate of 5% from 2005 and beyond.
Although 2003 had started reasonably well for most carriers, the combination of war in Iraq, the SARS epidemic and ongoing security concerns meant that by mid-year traffic levels had been hit hard, especially in Asia-Pacific. But there has since been a strong recovery there, and IATA expects that when the final figures are in, overall international passenger traffic for 2003 will show a decline of only 3-4% for the year. Preliminary data from ICAO states points to a 1% decrease in overall traffic last year and just under 3% for international services. Passenger traffic levels remain around 3.5% below the peak of 2000.
ICAO said that there was little change in capacity offered in 2003, leaving load factors at around the 70% mark. The number of passengers carried worldwide on scheduled services remained static at just over 1.6 billion.
Meanwhile, cargo has continued to grow despite the downturn. IATA expects international cargo traffic to show a 5% rise for 2003 and to grow by another 4.4% this year. ICAO puts last year's freight growth at under 4%.
Latest figures from Airbus and Boeing also suggest that aircraft manufacturing is also close to the bottom of the cycle. The aircraft market virtually flatlined in 2003, and although they do not expect orders to pick up again until 2005, the worst of the descent from the peak in 2000 appears to be over. Net orders actually edged up to 493 for the two manufacturers, thanks to a significant drop in cancellations.
Airbus came out narrowly ahead in the order battle, notching up 254 net orders in 2003, helped by a strong showing in the widebody market including 34 firm orders for the A380. The year marked another milestone in its battle with Boeing, as Airbus delivered more aircraft than its arch-rival for the first time ever. Airbus expects to keep output relatively steady this year at the 300 mark, while Boeing is predicting production in the 275-290 range.
MARK PILLING AND COLIN BAKER LONDON
Source: Airline Business
