KATE SARSFIELD / LONDON
Corporate aircraft deliveries are at a two-decade high and orderbooks are swollen. But can the good times continue? We review what is on offer and still to come
With the highest number of business aircraft deliveries recorded in over two decades and orderbooks bulging at the seams, manufacturers are riding high. And the trend looks set to continue over the next two years if the economies of key markets such as Europe and North America continue to grow. Airframer optimism is manifested in the US General Aviation Manufacturers Association worldwide deliveries figures for last year. These reveal a 21% hike over the previous 12 months to 750 jets, 365 turboprops and 2,465 pistons, with billings rising more than 27% to $15.1 billion.
The threats of rising fuel prices and US airspace user fees are looming large, however, and airframers concede the outlook beyond 2007 is uncertain.
These concerns are reflected by Honeywell Aerospace in its latest annual market forecast in which it predicts business jet deliveries to peak this year at more than 800 aircraft. Then there will be a cooling off period, it suggests, until the end of the decade, when deliveries could resume a climb towards 1,000 aircraft a year by 2015.
The business aircraft industry is busily working behind the scenes to devise innovative strategies to both stimulate and maintain long-term customer interest in its product lines. A handful of new designs are in development. Many are expected to gain certification, and some to enter service, in the next 12 months. These include the Dassault Falcon 7X ultra-long-range tri-jet at the upper end of the product range, and the Hawker 4000, formerly Horizon, super mid-size jet and the Gulfstream G150 mid-size business jet as the middle range offerings.
The entry-level market will witness the eagerly anticipated arrival of the first very light jets, notably Adam Aircraft’s A700, Cessna’s Citation Mustang and Eclipse Aviation’s Eclipse 500.
The focus of airframer activity over the next few years at least is expected to centre on light- to mid-range products, where customer demand is predicted to be at its strongest. Honeywell, for example, forecasts demand for 2,900 light and superlight aircraft, 2,500 mid- and super- mid-size aircraft and 1,900 very light jets. Cessna, Dassault and Piaggio Aero Industries have already hinted at a possible launch of new mid-/super mid-size aircraft in the next year, while Embraer, in its quest to become a major business aircraft manufacturer, is making significant strides in the development of its latest offerings the Phenom 100 very light and Phenom 300 light jets.
Existing designs are also undergoing major revamps as airframers fight to retain their market share in the face of increasing competition. Among these, Cessna is planning to deliver its uprated CJ2+ (Model 525A) entry-level jet in the next few weeks while its Encore+ light jet is earmarked for approval in the third quarter. Dassault is working to receive certification by middle of next year for its Falcon 2000DX, a reduced-range 2000EX that will replace the 2000 in production.
Meanwhile, Bombardier has introduced upgraded versions of the Learjet 60 and Challenger 604, boasting revamped cabins and cockpits. The Learjet 60XR and Challenger 605 are scheduled to enter service early next year.
The turboprop sector is undergoing a revival, successfully exploiting the growing niche boosted by cost-conscious operators faced with rising fuel prices. The established airframers, EADS Socata, Piaggio, Pilatus and Raytheon, have upgraded their product lines and reported record sales for their respective TBM850, Avanti II, PC-12 and Beechcraft King Air range.
Production is also expected to increase next year, during which timeframe new turboprops such as the Extra EA-500 and Quest Kodiak turboprop singles are expected to enter service. ■
Source: Flight International
