Guy Norris/LOS ANGELES
AIRCRAFT MANUFACTURERS and conversion specialists are watching the burgeoning growth in world air-cargo traffic with eager anticipation. Every forecast points to steady and continuous growth, but not all agree on whether most of it will be carried by new or used aircraft.
A complex series of dynamics is at work to cloud the forecaster's crystal ball. The most obvious is the ready availability of low-priced aircraft which can be converted into freighters. The former glut of smaller used aircraft, including the Boeing 727 and 737 and the McDonnell Douglas (MDC) DC-9, has largely evaporated. The secondhand market for medium-sized and larger types, such as the Lockheed L-1011, the MDC DC-10 and the Boeing 747, on the other hand, is still rising.
MDC, for example, is optimistic that the secondhand-DC-10 freighter-conversion market will mushroom. "We have around 100 DC-10-10s and 130 DC-10-30s out there, which are good candidates for conversion," says Douglas Aircraft group leader of cargo marketing, Clark Brinker. "The key thing is that these aircraft are low-capital-cost, ie, over 15 years old, so it makes economic sense to convert them."
The interest shown in aircraft of the size of the DC-10 and above is particularly noteworthy, since the largest area of future growth in air cargo is expected to be in the large and medium markets. Boeing characterises medium-sized cargo aircraft as carrying 30t or more, while MDC starts calculating from 35t and up. Similarly, Boeing's large-capacity aircraft range from 50t upward, to include the 767 and DC-10, while MDC applies the cut-off point much higher, at 77t, to isolate its MD-11 and the 747.
Added to the availability of used aircraft is the confusion being caused by the increasing use of lower-hold cargo capacity on passenger aircraft. This factor is set to become even more significant as the new-generation widebodies (the Airbus A330/A340, Boeing 777-200 and MD-11) make their growing presence felt on the major trunk routes. The A340-300, for example, can carry up to 32 LD3 containers, while the 777-200 carries 33, both offering more underfloor capacity than that of the 747. The emergence of the 777-300 in 1998 and the proposed stretched A340-400 and MD-11 will compound this effect even further.
MDC predicts that lower-hold and Combi freight, as opposed to dedicated freighter traffic, will rise from around 60 billion revenue-tonne-km (RTK) to around 150 billion RTK by 2009. The company expects that, at this same time, around 60% of the world air cargo will still be carried by passenger aircraft.
The effect of belly-hold cargo capacity is further downward pressure on cargo yields. This, in turn, is expected to push operators towards conversion, rather than to buying new aircraft.
So, the trend in the short term would appear to make conversion specialists happy and airframers depressed. Yet things are not necessarily that simple. MDC's interest in DC-10 con- versions, for example, is tied to keeping contact with its customer base and encouraging future MD-11 sales. In addition, air-cargo growth over the next 20 years is forecast to be around 7.3% a year in terms of RTK, outstripping passenger growth by around 1.5% a year. The result is overall growth prospects for airframers and converters alike.
FREIGHTER FORECASTS
Boeing believes that more than 600 new freighters, worth $65 billion in 1995 dollars, will be required between now and 2015. MDC, still assessing its 20-year forecast, believes that 580 new freighters will be needed by 2009.
Overall, Boeing believes that 2,050 new and converted freighter aircraft will be required between 1996 and 2015. The world all-cargo fleet, which stands at an estimated 1,219 aircraft, will grow (after retirements) over that period to 2,260. Of this total, the proportion of large aircraft (the 747, 767, DC-10, MD-11 and A340) will grow most dramatically, from 18% today, to around 38%. The number of medium-sized aircraft (the 707, 757, DC-8, A300, A310 and L-1011), will shrink proportionately, from 36%, to 25%. Meanwhile, the small freighter aircraft (the 727, 737, DC-9, BAC One-Eleven and British Aerospace 146), are expected to drop, from 46%, to around 37%.
MDC also sees dramatic growth in the large-size category, which it counts as the MD-11 and 747 and derivatives of these models. Of the 1,140 units it estimated as the world freighter fleet in 1994, some 154 were in this category. By 2009, MDC estimates that the total world fleet will have reached 1,933 units, of which 525 - or more than 25% - will be the largest aircraft.
As MDC counts the 767 and DC-10 as medium-sized freighters, its forecast shows a dramatic difference from Boeing's. Both types are either actively entering freight service, or about to make significant inroads. The first of up to 60 767Fs are in service with UPS Airlines, and MDC is confident of "at least" 50 DC-10 conversions in the short- to mid-term. The result is a virtual doubling of the proportion of medium-sized freighters over the MDC forecast period, from 386 in 1994 to 633 in 2009.
New trade agreements and open-skies policies are expected to be the major drivers for the growth in the medium and, in particular, large, long-range, freighter categories. "These will provide the economic growth and make the long-range direct flights politically do-able," says MDC assistant marketing manager, Eric Frankenberg.
MDC is particularly focused on the MD-11F/CF as a way out of its tri-jet-order slump. MDC vice-president and general manager John Feren says: "The hidden jewel for us on the MD-11 has turned out to be the freight market." The company has commitments for 51 MD-11F/CFs and has delivered 30.
Boeing, on the other hand, is fighting hard to increase sales of its 747-400F. Around 19 are on order, of which 11 have been delivered. The company's own conversion programme, at Boeing Wichita, meanwhile, has just delivered its 68th converted 747 freighter and is offering positions on a newly developed 747-300 conversion programme in April 1997.
Airbus Industrie has had relatively little business in the freighter market. This is expected to change, however, as numbers of secondhand A300s and A310s become available. In the meantime, it continues to enjoy its successful relationship with FedEx which, with more than 30 A300-600Fs and A310-200Fs in service, is its largest single freighter customer.
Source: Flight International
