Paul Lewis/BEIJING Max Kingsley-Jones/TOULOUSE
The pending major shake-up of China's state-run aerospace industry is set to again delay the Boeing MD-90 TrunkLiner programme and prolong discussions with Airbus Industrie Asia on co-development of the AE31X regional jet.
The new Chinese Government of premier Zhu Rongji has ordered a restructuring of the aerospace sector, as part of a wider push to reform China's bureaucratic ministries and overhaul its loss-making state enterprises. At risk of disappearing are Aviation Industries of China (AVIC) and its Catic international sales organisation.
Plans call for the two organisations' functions to be absorbed by a newly created "super ministry", along with other dual purpose civil and defence sectors such as the nuclear and space industries. The proposed new science and technology commission is intended to streamline the running of bloated and overlapping aerospace bodies.
The impending changes have effectively thrown into limbo some major present and future aerospace programmes, including the TrunkLiner and AE31X projects. "No one can take decisions on developments four or five years down the track, when they might not even have a job by the end of this year," says an industry official.
The roll-out of the first licence-built MD-90-30 by Shanghai Aviation Industrial (SAIC) has already slipped from April until November and could now slip into next year.
SAIC had planned to deliver the first four locally produced MD-90s in 1999, but AVIC has still not managed to line up any local airline customers.
Questions over the future of AVIC has thrown further doubt on the future of the AE31X. Partner Singapore Technologies has dropped out of active discussions on the project, which is now the subject of a financial feasibility study due to be concluded by June.
The possible launch of the A319M5 shrink as an interim counter to the Boeing 717 may refocus Sino-European efforts on longer term development of a more cost-efficient 100-seat airliner successor.
New Airbus Industrie boss Noel Forgeard sees the addition of a 100-seater to the Airbus product line as a vital element in its efforts to continue its market share gains over Boeing.
He confirms the existence of the A319M5 studies, but emphasises that the AE31X regional jet joint venture remains the consortium's "preferred solution" for the 100-seat market.
Although Airbus continues to talk down the status of the A319M5, the reality is that consortium salesmen are already offering the aircraft to some airlines, including A319 customer Northwest. This suggests AE31X timescales are being pushed back.
Forgeard, who replaced Jean Pierson as managing director of Airbus in April, says that the original business case for the AE31X was not strong enough and so "-we are reviewing the programme and will only launch if it makes economic sense".
John Leahy, Airbus senior vice-president commercial, says: "We know we have to sell the aircraft in 'the low 20s' [$ million]. We know it can be a successful programme- we are working to establish how we get to that position."
Source: Flight International
