GUY norris / LOS ANGELES
The US-military spawned Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle programme is an increasingly vital lifeline to a US launcher industry hit by a dwindling market
The 21 August launch of Lockheed Martin's first Atlas V Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV), carrying a Eutelsat/Alcatel Hot Bird 6 communications satellite, was a rare bright spot for an industry facing bleak times.
The US launcher business is reeling from successive punches from the effect of overcapacity, floundering financial markets, the fallout from last year's terrorist attacks and a string of crippling corporate scandals. Most of these have had a severe impact on the telecommunications business, the main commercial customer of the international space launch industry.
The result is a far greater industry reliance on the EELV which, until relatively recently, was viewed as a valuable military adjunct to what was formerly a burgeoning commercial market.
Assured access
Launched officially in 1995, the $2 billion US Air Force EELV programme was chartered with achieving "assured access to space" for the Department of Defense. The new system was to assure the "availability of critical space capabilities for executing space missions, regardless of failures of single elements of the space force structure" and, at the same time, reduce costs.
The programme's objective at the time of the go-ahead was cost savings of $5-$10 billion between 2002 and 2020. This was to be achieved through development of a robust, interchangeable family of launchers with reduced lifecycle costs. In exchange for pursuing a new partnership with the USAF in the venture, the winners would benefit from guaranteed military business and a valuable new competitive edge in the commercial market, particularly against Europe's Ariane 5, but also alternatives from China, Japan and Russia.
After whittling down the competitors to Lockheed Martin and McDonnell Douglas (before Boeing's takeover) in late 1996, the USAF awarded contracts to each. The contractors also poured in around $1 billion of their own money to "evolve" their respective Atlas and Delta rockets, production line technology and launch infrastructure into the EELV families now on offer.
The resulting booster families cover launch capabilities ranging from the 4t geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO) capacity of the Atlas V-501/502 and Delta IV Medium, to the 13t-plus capacity of the Delta IV Heavy and planned Atlas V Heavy Lift Vehicle (HLV).
From the start of the programme, one of the main drivers behind the EELV effort has been the development of a cost-effective Titan IV replacement for heavy launches. It was at this end of the spectrum where the USAF predicted the greatest cost savings, but since the mid-1990s, the average weight of the military payloads has been growing, and with it the potential savings. With the current breakdown of the planned EELV launch manifest, the USAF expects to be spending around $75 million on medium launchers, $110 million on intermediate and $150 million on heavy. The heavy payloads alone would have cost around $400 million in equivalent Titan IV launchers, leading to USAF savings estimates of around $10 billion, against the $6 billion predicted earlier.
Cost factors
This calculation still depends, however, on the health of the launcher companies. Estimates for their costs, in turn, were originally predicated on a much larger launch orderbook. In Lockheed Martin's case, for example, costs were originally spread across 19 Atlas V launches a year, rather than the present six. In a similar scenario, Boeing expected to be working towards a launch capacity of between 36 and 50 a year (all launcher models), and says the total market accounts for between 15 and 25 satellites a year.
Both companies are therefore seeking additional funding of between $100 million and $150 million a year to cover the gap until the market shows signs of regaining its strength. Lockheed Martin vice-president Atlas/EELV programmes Michael Gass says the extra money is being requested to maintain core competency during this slack period. "You don't want to lose it because it is still rocket science. You don't want to lose key people or the infrastructure," he says.
"One of the things we're looking for is a launch-on-demand vehicle," adds Gass, who says the task is made easier by the modular design of the Atlas V family. "We're confident everyone is seeing the issues the same way, and we are in the early stages of preparing the budget request. You should never let national security be at risk because of commercial conditions," he adds. Both Boeing and Lockheed Martin are applying for extra funding from the fiscal year 2004 budget, the first money from which could become available as early as October 2003.
Boeing Delta IV/EELV marketing vice-president Jim Simpson echoes the views of his counterpart. "We're working that [extra funding]. It is a brutal time from a commercial perspective and we were banking on that growth, so something has to happen. However, it is not a normal market. There are national and continental requirements, so even if the commercial market calls for consolidation, it won't happen." Boeing's requested funding covers "ways to retain skills and support product improvements to increase reliability", he adds.
Boeing has notched up 22 EELV launch contracts worth more than $1.5 billion, compared to seven Atlas Vs worth around $500 million. Although more than a year behind its original schedule, Simpson says confidence remains high in the overall success of Delta V and its ability to snatch more USAF contracts in mid-2003. Fears that a Defense Satellite Communications System (DSCS) satellite may be transferred to the Atlas because of the delays are unfounded, according to Simpson. "The delays have not been impacting the programme significantly, so at this point the US government has no plans to move DSCS off Delta IV. It would take a significant event to do that."
While both companies are likely to bid for the Block 2 EELV competition, Boeing says all currently call for West Coast launches. This makes it "effectively a sole-source procurement", says Simpson, explaining that Boeing's space launch complex site 6 (SLCS 6) at Vandenburg AFB, California, is the only EELV compatible site outside Florida. The first Delta IV launch from Vandenburg is scheduled for later in 2003. Block 2 EELV is expected to consist of four launches, and may be rolled into a follow-on requirement for an unknown number of additional launches in a Block 3 batch.
Market gloom
Despite the overall market gloom, Boeing's booked launch tally remains strong, with 85 booked between the end of 2002 and 2007. Of the total, which includes 10 Sea Launch and 49 Delta II launches, a further seven are booked for Delta III - four in 2004 and three in 2005. Two of these are large NASA GEOS payloads which, says Boeing, may be swapped to Delta IVs. This would take the total Delta IV launch number to 29 over the next six years, 22 of which would be EELV missions. Boeing has orders for a further 45 payloads not yet allocated to specific launchers and is discussing delivery options for around a similar number under agreements extending to 2010.
Lockheed Martin and International Launch Services (ILS), which sells the Atlas and Russian Proton launcher services, got off the mark first by launching the Hot Bird 6. It has also picked up the Greek Hellas Sat, which will be launched early in 2003, replacing a Telesat Canada payload, Nimiq 2, which will now be launched by a Proton rocket. "Telesat was always an either/or [Atlas V/Proton]," says Gass. "That's the beauty of a combined strategy like ILS." As if to underline the effectiveness of this combined operation, an ILS Proton launched an Echostar 8 spacecraft from Baikonur on the same day as the first Atlas V mission.
Without the extra cushion of EELV contracts enjoyed by Boeing, Lockheed Martin's Atlas V position depends on a healthy commercial orderbook. Although its first military launch is not due until 2005, the company expects at least five Atlas Vs to lift off from Cape Canaveral by the end of next year. In the longer run it says it has also secured 30 firm options, with others in the wings.
To bolster their future, both Boeing and Lockheed Martin have plenty of work to do. Boeing knows the long-awaited, and equally long-delayed, first launch of its Delta IV is increasingly vital to its EELV and commercial customers. The company successfully completed a fifth tanking (loading of propellants) test on 27 September and planned to conduct a flight-readiness engine firing for the Rocketdyne RS-68-powered first stage late last week. Pending the correction of some software issues with the terminal phase countdown system (Flight International, 1-7 October), Boeing remains optimistic of protecting its 3 November launch target.
Despite the delays, Simpson says "we're not in a defensive position", and rejects recent concerns levelled at the programme. One of these relates to claims that the new Delta IV launch infrastructure is overly complex. "We've designed it for simplicity all the way through. The overall goal was to develop a system for 20-plus years that will be cost effective," says Simpson.
Launch sequence
In the near-term Boeing also vests considerable importance in its early launching sequence which, mostly by serendipity, covers the full range of EELV members. The first launch, this year, will be a Delta IV Medium 4.2. The second, next year, will be a Medium, the third another Medium 4.2 and the fourth a Delta IV Heavy. "By the fourth flight we will have essentially demonstrated all four up to a GTO-capable load of 13t," says Simpson. Boeing also plans to begin using the Delta IV Heavy in a dual-manifest role "like Arianspace" in 2005, he adds.
Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin is putting further effort into defining an HLV version of its Atlas V capable of placing payloads weighing at least 13,170kg (29,000lb) into GTO. The company completed a major review for the Heavy variant in late September, in the course of which the design concept was frozen. "We are three years away from a capability to launch a Heavy and we're working on ways to bring that time down," says Gass. "We're beginning to hear from the government of other potential needs for a Heavy. If it firms up, we'll be ready to bid on it."
For now, the company is carefully preparing for its next launch and painstakingly reviewing data taken during the 21 August mission. "There were a few environments where we had higher than predicted vibrations in a certain zone on an external liquid oxygen duct in one frequency range, and one area where the temperature was different from that predicted, but they're all well within what we've experienced. The important part is we are looking at all the data, and how we will be able to deliver the next launch. You never let any piece of data go. You are only as good as your last launch," Gass says.
Source: Flight International
