Unfazed by fierce competition from Airbus's A350, Boeing is confident that its 787 Dreamliner, which has already attracted record orders, will capture half the market over the next two decades
Boeing's 787 programme is entering a critical period as it makes the transition from the joint definitions phase to detailed design, and seeks to consolidate its early lead over the aggressively competitive Airbus A350.
The 787 is off to a good start by any measure and, with 261 definitive agreement and proposal acceptances already in the bag, it has the greatest backlog ever accumulated by a Boeing airliner so early before its first flight. With that milestone still two years away, Boeing has plenty of time to raise the figure even further.
"It's been gratifying how the world is receiving the Dreamliner," says Walt Gillette, vice-president of engineering, manufacturing and partner alignment. "Now our assignment is to deliver the goods. We have definitive agreements and proposals accepted for 261 aircraft from 21 customers. Of those 261, 118 are firm. We have active proposals for around 400 more aircraft out there, and that doesn't include the possibility of options."
Lifted by a swift flurry of key campaign victories in March and April at Air Canada, Air India and Northwest Airlines, the 787 has enjoyed a buoyant period during which it all but eclipsed the Airbus challenger. But the battle lines have been redrawn once again following Airbus's dramatic revision of the A350-800/900. And with fresh campaigns in the air, the market, estimated by both contenders at 3,100 to 3,500 over the next 20 years, is very much to play for.
Despite the threat of an imminent A350 comeback, Gillette does not seem concerned. "Boeing forecasts 3,500 aircraft in this sector for the next 20 years, and we thought that if we had a really good product, we'd capture around half the market. We anticipated an Airbus response, and they've got an aircraft offering what we expected in terms of fuselage and systems."
Not surprisingly, Gillette is unafraid to respond to the recent Airbus salvos. "They face quite a challenge because, with a take-off weight of around 540,000lb [245,000kg], they are right at the edge of what the 787 engines will do," he says. The A350 is currently offered with General Electric's GEnx-series engine, available with four basic ratings between 63,000lb and 75,000lb thrust, and is expected to come to a similar arrangement with Rolls-Royce over a version of the Trent 1000 in the next few months.
Gillette also questions the estimated development costs of the A350 family. "Although they are constrained by the flightdeck and fuselage systems, it still comes forward with a lot of derivative aspects," he says. "Yet they've already said it will be 90% new parts. In a way, it's the worst of all worlds and, at around €5.7 billion [$7.5 billion], that's a lot of money for a derivative."
Highlighting the recent slew of combined 777/787 wins, Gillette also discounts the threat from the larger A350-900, which has progressively moved up in size to become a challenger to the 777-200 rather than the 787-9. "What they've come out with is what we anticipated they'd do between the 787 and 777," he says. "But we have the -8 and -9 and then the ability to step up to the 777-200 and -300. It's a formidable stack-up in which the 787 has complemented the 777 in some campaigns we've won, and in some cases its been the other way around."
Detailed design
Away from the bitter angst of the marketplace, Boeing and its 787 team-mates are making steady progress towards finalising the detailed design. The rate of release of digital-design datasets for the production of hardware varies enormously through the programme depending on the part. Nacelle and pylon parts for the engine, for example, are well on the way to detailed release, with the first Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 due to start tests in mid-February 2006. "On the other hand, the wing-to-body fairing will be one of the last items to be closed out. We have agreed where it will contact the fuselage, and we're finalising the shape of the fairing in the next month or two," Gillette adds.
The design team has collectively racked up more than 800,000h of computing time on Cray supercomputers, which are used in conjunction with traditional windtunnel work, computational fluid- dynamics and the digital design tools. "We still do a great deal of windtunnel tests, and we're about 80% done with those," says Gillette. "In all we're looking at doing a total of 15,000 hours of windtunnel tests, and the remaining fifth of that will be work on the final lines."
Data from this latter work, mostly focused on the 787-8 variant, is being used to develop initial flight-control system software for the first flight simulators. The final round of windtunnel work is expected to be completed by early 2006 at the latest. "We will go back and do specific tune-up testing for the -3 and -9. It's a pretty action-packed schedule, and it's more like a continuous development," says Gillette, adding that progress is expected to be rapid because the design team is "really hot".
Testing on the composite fuselage sections is also ramping up with three test barrels completed, including two versions of the original tail and aft fuselage Section 47, plus a constant-diameter barrel that could represent a Section 43 or 46. "Now we're working on a Section 41 [nose], and we will be doing six or seven such test barrels in total," says Gillette, adding that the work of proving the material is essentially over. "From now on, we're working on production efficiency, basically. We're through the baking process, and at the end of the this we will build a big piece of barrel and an additional half a piece of barrel for certification of the mechanical join of the major sections."
Test work is also under way on the first full-size structural wingbox, and involves tests on a 18.3m (60ft) long representative outboard wing section, as well as a 3m-long centre-section unit. Fuji Heavy Industries (FHI) is making the wing centre section, while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) is providing the outboard wing, with Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) adding the fixed structure. The wing will be finished in Everett, with the completion of equipping and fitting of all the Boeing-built trailing- and leading-edge moving surfaces.
"We've traded on this one," says Gillette. "Boeing traditionally did the wingbox on other wings, and the partners did the outside. This time it's the other way around, and all the tests will happen here, as well as the completion of all production wings." MHI is supplying ribs, stringers and spars for the test unit, with Boeing providing the composite skins and performing the tape layup. Tests on the unit take place by the end of the year, says Gillette. Similar work will also be done by Alenia in Italy on the first full-size horizontal-tail structural wing box, and by Boeing at its Fredrickson site in Washington where the vertical tail is being developed.
Integrated systems
Systems tests will be undertaken at a specially developed 787 integration facility at Hamilton Sundstrand's Rockford, Illinois site, construction of which is now under way. The site is electronically linked to several suppliers which, working in conjunction with Boeing test engineers, will be able to conduct tests of the integrated systems remotely. It is through such advances that the 787 development is staying on track, despite the sophistication of much of the technology and the new territory covered. "That's how it's balancing out," says Gillette. "We're doing a number of innovative things that a decade ago would have taken longer, but we're able to compress time dramatically and essentially, we're doing more in a shorter time."
And time itself is short. The first sub-assemblies are due "on dock" at Everett at the end of 2006, in time for the start of production and the launch of flight tests in mid-2007. With the -3 and -9 variants hard on the heels of the -8, Boeing's 787 design team knows this first stage is really only the start of the most intense flight-test programme since the original 777 development effort in the mid-1990s.
GUY NORRIS/LOS ANGELES
Source: Flight International
