Having survived the phenomenal growth in regional jets, the turboprop is finding a future in cargo
Guy Norris/LOS ANGELES
The 1990s was a decade of retrenchment, even decline, for the turboprop industry. Caught in a pincer movement between regional jets and entry-level business jets, the industry saw its big-ticket money-making civil market chopped away chunk by chunk.
The impact has been felt most in the regional aircraft market, where the share of jet-powered models has increased from 10% of annual orders at the start of the 1990s to almost 90% by 2000. Yet the 21st century picture emerging from this apparent carnage may not be bleak. As the dust settles following the initial regional jet (RJ) order frenzy, a steady flow of turboprop orders remains intact. Though nothing like the glory days of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the market is still alive.
ATR, jointly owned by Alenia and EADS, reports 281 transactions in the past four years, and predicts a market for at least 1,400 turboprop regional airliners over the next 20 years in the 20-89 seat arena. Of this, it believes the strongest segment will be in the 60- to 89-seat sector where a market of 517 aircraft is forecast. Although this is almost a third of the expected regional jet market sales forecast for that seat sector, ATR believes it is realistic given the distinctive advantages turboprops still enjoy. Despite advances in the jet-powered alternatives, turboprop airliners still have better field performance, lower direct operating costs on short haul operations and are more environmentally friendly. Marketing and support division president John Moore says the bottom line for ATR is "there is still a turboprop market".
In the smallest, 20- to 39-seat sector, ATR believes the turboprop will clinch over a third of the overall predicted market of 1,416 aircraft. Turboprops have a harder time competing with the RJ phenomenon in the 40- to 59-seat market, where they will account for only 420 of the 2,258 forecast sales.
Cargo business will be the key to the turboprop's future, Moore believes. "Cargo traffic growth will continue over the next 20 years and turboprops have excellent marketability for that," he adds. ATR forecasts that the market will require more than 800 small freighters in the 3t to 10t class by 2018 - double today's fleet. If retirements stay constant, this creates a market for 700 aircraft. Raytheon, the only remaining volume producer of a 19-seat turboprop, the Beech 1900D, believes the cargo market will provide renewed stimulus to the industry. It delivered 84 aircraft in 1999, 60 of which were pre-owned, and predicts steady demand of 40 to 60 used 1900s through the decade.
Demand predictions
Even Embraer, which pioneered the RJ revolution with Bombardier, and is no longer manufacturing turboprops in significant quantities, predicts solid business for them over the next 10 years. Although modest compared with jet sales, the company believes there will be a demand for up to 155 turboprops in the 30- to 44-seat range, up to 110 in the 45- to 60-seat sector, and 165 in the 61- to 80-seat market. This may add up to only 10% of 30- to 110-seat sales over the next decade, but it is still substantial potential business for the last two major players in the market, ATR with the ATR42 and 72, and Bombardier with the Dash 8Q series.
Bombardier admits that the backlog of turboprop-powered regional aircraft has tumbled from over 700 in the heady days of 1991, to around 170 today. Yet it believes demand is stabilising at around 100 units per year, of which the company intends to supply the majority. It holds a backlog of 89 Dash 8 sales from a firm orderbook of 659, and options on a further 83, having taken orders for 108 Q Series aircraft in the last 18 months. Of the 98 sales in the overall 20-to 90-seat turboprop market in 1999, 66 were for Q Series types. Over the next 20 years, Bombardier expects demand for 1,191 aircraft in the 20- to 39-seat category, 3,936 in the 40- to 59-seat sector and 2,817 in the 60- to 79-seat sector. Above this, carefully staying away from the complex 100-seat territory, Bombardier expects a demand for 1,174 units in the 80- to 99-seat sector. Of these totals it does not disclose how many it expects will be taken by turboprops, though it seems confident that just under 2,000 of the 9,118 total regional aircraft it forecasts will be sold will be prop-powered.
The newest large turboprop engine in the civil market, the Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150A, entered service in February, powering the first Q400 for SAS Commuter. After solving teething troubles such as cracking oil lines, the engine appears to be on track to join the other stalwart members of the PW100 family, which extends to more than 25 models.
The PW100 engine family powers more than 1,900 aircraft in service with almost 300 operators in 94 countries. Other recent additions to the PW100-powered fold include the PW127H-powered Ilyushin Il-114-100, which entered service earlier this year with Uzbekistan Airways, and the PW127J-powered Y7-200A, which recently marked its first full year in service with Changan Airlines of Xian, China.
Deliveries of the only other large, Western-made turboprop, the Rolls-Royce AE2100, continue to support the Lockheed MartinC-130J and C-27J programmes. Production of the related AE1107 turboshaft, which uses the same core, is being increased to match initial rates on the Bell/Boeing V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor line. R-R also took steps to protect its position as a supplier of high-power turboprops by signing a memorandum of understanding with Snecma in August to develop an engine for the proposed A400M military transport. The three-shaft turboprop, building on the core of the Snecma M88 turbofan and incorporating Trent three-shaft architecture, is expected to be built by a joint-venture company. In addition to R-R and Snecma, the group includes FiatAvio, Industria de Turbo Propulsores and MTU Aero Engines.
This year also saw a major milestone for the CTP800-4T, an unusual engine co-developed by Honeywell and R-R which bridges the gap between turboshaft and turboprop. Derived from the T800, which is in flight test on the RAH-66 Comanche, the CTP800-4T combines two engines through a gearbox to drive a single propeller. The first "propulsion system unit" was delivered to Ayres for installation on the fin-ancially-troubled Loadmaster earlier this year.
Manufacturers are optimistic about prospects for the turboshaft business over the next decade. R-R, for instance, sees a requirement for more than 9,000 turbine helicopters from 2000 to 2009, 60% of which will be civil and 40% military. Turbine singles are set to dominate the civil market, taking up to 56% of the 5,400 units over the period. The military market, sized at a projected 3,630 aircraft, is expected to be dominated by multi-engined, heavy helicopters (45%), and attack machines (28%).
Joint ventures have traditionally formed a larger element of the turbine engine business than any other part of the aero engine industry and this year has seen even more activity with General Electric and Pratt & Whitney teaming to compete for the US Army's Common Engine Program (CEP). The new helicopter engine is intended to replace the GE T700 in future growth versions of the Sikorsky GH-60 Black Hawk, SH-60 Seahawk and Boeing AH-64 Apache, and is expected to be 20% cheaper to run, as well as have a 60% power-to-weight improvement and 25% better fuel economy.
a step closer
GE's CT7-8 turboshaft, a derivative of the T700 and related CT7 turboshaft family, took another step closer towards service entry on the Sikorsky S-92 in October following certification by the US Federal Aviation Administration. Developed in association with FiatAvio, the engine is rated at 1,880kW (2,520shp) and has been certificated with special 30s and 2min one engine inoperative ratings, permitting Category A operation over a wide range of ambient conditions. The first production engines will be shipped to Sikorsky in mid-2001.
In Europe, entry into service events and long-awaited production contracts for several key military turbine programmes finally began to come in after years of work and planning. The R-R Turbomeca RTM322, which is in its second full year of service on the Royal Navy's Merlin HM1 helicopter, entered service with the Royal Air Force on the Merlin HC3, and completed 3,000h of tests on the Apache AH1 for the British Army. The engine was also formally selected by France, Germany and the Netherlands for 399 NH90 helicopters in a contract valued at $1 billion. The deal with the Netherlands followed an earlier agreement between Rolls-Royce and Turbomeca, and VGT, the Dutch Gas Turbine Association, which gave the Netherlands the chance for industrial workshare on the RTM322. Italy meanwhile selected the GE T700/T6E1 for its 190-strong NH90 fleet, deliveries of which begin in 2004.
Another pan-European project which finally moved to the contract phase was the MTR390, a turboshaft for the Tiger attack helicopter. The three engine makers collaborating on the MTR390, MTU, Turbomeca and R-R received contracts for the first 320 of up to 1,000 engines for the programme early this year.
Source: Flight International
