US manufacturer revises forecast for airliner demand as low-cost carrier sector takes off in Pacific Rim region
Boeing has given its long-term airliner demand forecast a major shake-up in light of the booming low-cost carrier market in Asia-Pacific, which it expects will have a significant effect on average aircraft size. The overall impact is felt most acutely at the high end of the capacity range, with the US manufacturer slashing its forecast for large aircraft demand by a fifth.
Outlining the Current Market Outlook (CMO) released during the show, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president of marketing Randy Baseler said that demand for passenger aircraft in the period 2004-23 is forecast to be around 24,270 units, plus a further 730 new freighters.
This is about 3% higher than last year's CMO, with the bulk of the change being driven by a 21% increase in the forecast for single-aisle 90- to 200-seat aircraft.
This revision was driven by the rapid changes the airline market in the Asia-Pacific region has recently been experiencing, which Boeing thinks signals a major change in the buying patterns of airlines in the area.
"When we'd previously looked at Asia-Pacific, we thought that [unlike in North America and Europe] the low-cost carrier market would be slow to develop because of the lack of deregulation," says Baseler. "But this is changing as new low-cost carriers like [Malaysia's] AirAsia are now driving liberalisation, as countries realise they can benefit from low-fare services to their cities."
The region, which has traditionally been a big user of widebody twinjets for relatively short sectors, is now set to experience more point-to-point service and frequency growth that will drive demand for single-aisle aircraft like the 737 and A320, says Baseler.
"The effect of this change is felt across the spectrum of categories," he says. The area worst affected by Boeing's re-evaluation is its forecast for demand in the "747 and larger" sector - which has been cut by 21% to 535 passenger aircraft. Of these, only around 50% (270 aircraft) are in the Airbus A380's category (500-plus seats) says Baseler - a market for which Airbus foresees a demand for a total of around 1,100 aircraft.
Meanwhile, Boeing is less optimistic on demand for new freighters, with its forecast being cut from 760 aircraft to 724.
Source: Flight International
