AerCap president Philip Scruggs has denied the existence of a global aircraft order bubble, arguing that manufacturers are too rational to allow a situation that could “kill the industry”.
Scruggs says speculation over an order bubble is the “talk right now”, but stresses that it is important to differentiate between an order bubble and a delivery bubble.
“An order bubble and delivery bubble are two different things,” he told Flightglobal at the Farnborough air show today. “We have to assume that the OEMs are rational players, that they’ve been doing this for a long time, and the number aircraft that are delivered... when they are delivered may differ from the dates that are currently set and the orders that we see out there.”
He adds: “Airlines often time-slide deliveries. Do I think all of the orderbook that exists today will get delivered? Will it get delivered as its currently scheduled? Probably not, both Boeing and Airbus double-book, they plan their orderbooks for some airlines that will need to defer or cancel. They’ve been doing that for a long time.
“So don’t get confused by the natural over booking that the airframers do – they are both rational players, and they’re not going to kill the industry.”
AerCap firmed up an order for 50 Airbus A320neos at the show, bringing its firm orders for the type up to 200 – the largest of any lessor. It is also the largest customer for the Boeing 787.
Scruggs’ comments chime with a recent report by Flightglobal consultancy Ascend, which asserts that widespread industry concerns over an impending order bubble are unwarranted.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
