Three spacecraft, including the UK-built Beagle 2, will set out in 2003 to land on Mars. But the commercial side of spaceflight looks less promising: just 15 communications satellites are due for launch over the year - a 50% drop over 2002.
The downturn in the commercial space industry has resulted in a rationalisation that may continue into 2003. And the commercial launcher leaders - Europe's Arianespace and US companies Boeing and Lockheed Martin-led International Launch Services (ILS) - could suffer a drop in launch orders.
The loss of the first Ariane 5 ESC-A in December was a major setback for Arianespace. The vehicle was to have offered a record 10,000kg (22,000lb) to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) capability. The company's 2003 manifest was expected to include about 10 launches, using the final Ariane 4, the flight-proven Ariane 5G and the new ESC-A. The first launch of 2003, an Ariane 5G scheduled for take off between 13 and 31 January, will send the European Space Agency's (ESA) Rosetta craft on its nine-year mission to the comet Wirtanen.
The less-powerful Boeing Delta IV and Lockheed Martin Atlas V - built under the US Air Force's Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) programme - made successful maiden flights in 2002. Boeing's Delta IV Heavy, with a 13,000kg-to-GTO capability, will make its debut in 2003, while Lockheed Martin has plans - but not the budget - for a similar Atlas V Heavy. The Delta IV Heavy is due to fly two missions in 2003, the first a Boeing-funded demonstration flight and the second carrying a US Air Force communications satellite.
Smaller Delta IV models are due to launch commercial communications satellites in 2003, but Boeing will continue to fly the workhorse Delta II and possibly the little-used Delta III. The Delta II is scheduled for eight launches in 2003, carrying two global positioning system satellites and seven scientific payloads, including two Mars Rovers, the Gravity Probe B and Space Infrared Telescope Facility. The future of the Boeing-led international Sea Launch, which uses the Proton K's DM upper stage, is still in doubt because of its high costs, despite being manifested to fly three satellites in 2003. These could be transferred to another launcher.
The Atlas IIAS and III versions will also continue to fly in 2003. The Atlas IIAS will carry one communications satellite and a National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) payload, an Atlas IIIB will carry a communications satellite, and one Atlas V is manifested to fly a similar payload. The venerable Lockheed Martin Titan IV fleet, which will eventually be succeeded by the EELVs, will continue to fly in 2003, with four Titan IV launches planned to carry two NRO payloads, one Milstar and an early warning satellite. A Titan II is due to launch a US Air Force meteorological spacecraft in 2003.
In addition to a science mission, called Freestar, aboard STS 107 in January, there are five Space Shuttle missions to the International Space Station (ISS) planned in 2003, to enlarge the orbiting space base. These will be complemented by the Russian launches of two Soyuz TMA crew rescue vehicles and three unmanned Progress tankers, all launched on Soyuz boosters.
The Russian Proton, part of the ILS stable of launchers, will make one firm commercial launch in 2003, carrying a communications satellite. It will be a Proton Briz-M model, which succeeds the Proton K version that failed during a commercial launch in November. China is expected to launch its fourth Shen Zhou spacecraft in 2003, on what is likely to be the final unmanned test mission before a manned flight.
Source: Flight International
