Deliveries of business jets will peak this year but will remain near record levels before climbing again towards the end of the next decade, according to a market forecast from Honeywell Aerospace. The company projects deliveries of 6,800 aircraft, valued at over $90 billion, between 2001 and 2011, in its ninth annual survey released at NBAA.
Based on the purchase expectations of 1,100 corporate flight departments in the Americas, Europe and, for the first time, in Asia, the survey predictably reveals that operators' purchase expectations for the new turbofan powered aircraft "fall short of the record levels recorded in 1999".
"There will be a potential cooling of near term order levels offset over the next few years by already high backlogs, the impact of new and derivative aircraft models entering service with corporate flight departments and by rapidly expanding fractional ownership plans," says Honeywell.
Aircraft backlogs, the survey reveals, remain near the record high levels established last year and Honeywell expects operators to take delivery of around 740 new business aircraft in 2000, up from 638 a year ago, and 697 in 2001.
Purchase expectations are below last year's record levels in three of the four regions surveyed, with only Asia near the peak levels recorded in 1999. Honeywell's ten year projection shows an overall 6-7% annual business jet fleet growth rate based on ongoing economic recovery in the region.
Honeywell says: "Asia Pacific operators should account for a significantly higher percentage of total business jet demand over the five years, perhaps by as much as 10%, if conditions in the region remain stable".
North America remains "the strongest and largest market", into which 71% of all new jets will be sold in the next five years. Europe "is softening its purchase expectations", with operators expecting to expand or replace the equivalent of 15% of its current jets in the next five years, while Latin American operators report plans to replace or expand 11% of the fleet.
Expectations out to 2011 are:
1. 150 corporate configured airliners (Airbus A319CJ, BBJ) valued at around $6.6 billion.
2. 950 long range (Dassault Falcon 900EX, Bombardier Global Express, Gulfstream IVSP/V), with a near-term peak as initial pent up demand is satisfied.
3. 600 large jets (Falcon 2000 Challenger 604).
4. 1,550 medium and medium/large aircraft (Hawker 800XP, Citation Sovereign, Continental, Hawker Horizon and Galaxy).
5. 2,300 light and light-medium types (Learjet 31A/45 Citation Excel and Bravo).
6. 1,370-plus entry level aircraft (Premier 1, Sino Swearingen SJ30-2, Citation CJ1/2).
Source: Flight International
