Forecasts for 2001 - Defence

With budgets still tight, the JSF battle is all-important

Stewart Penney/DEFENCE AVIATION EDITOR

A decision due to be made in Washington towards the middle of this year will determine the shape of the US fighter industry, and will have a major impact on the global aerospace industry for the next 50 years. The decision will be to select either Boeing's X-32 or Lockheed Martin'sX-35 to progress to the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) phase of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) programme.

At stake are orders for, initially, around 3,000 JSFs in conventional take-off and landing, aircraft carrier-compatible and short take-off and landing variants. The USA expects up to 2,000 more export orders, as well as participation by the aerospace industries of many allied nations. These include the only full partner, the UK, which at time of writing is due to decide on participating in EMD, although this has already slipped from the third quarter of last year.

The new administration in Washington - assuming it does not cancel JSF in favour of some other programme - will also need to decide whether the JSFprogramme continues on a "winner-take-all" basis, or whether the status quo of two competing fighter manufacturers is maintained by somehow dividing the work between Boeing and Lockheed Martin.

Affordability is the overwhelming concern of the Pentagon and hence the JSF teams, forced upon them by a decade of falling defence budgets during the last decade after the end of the Cold War (see table). NATO figures for 2000 show that some alliance members are increasing their budgets, but with North America's contribution rising 5.2% and Europe's falling 8.4%, the net increment is just 0.01%.

With George W Bush in the White House, flanked by former defence secretary Dick Cheney and retired General Colin Powell, US defence spending would appear safe, although certain long-cherished programmes could still face re-evaluation. Republicans have long been sceptical about the Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey tiltrotor, for example, but supportive of National Missile Defence.

As 2000 closed, a US Defence Acquisition Board (DAB) was due to decide whether the Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor next generation fighter should progress into low-rate initial production (LRIP). The US Air Force wants $4 billion in the Fiscal Year 01 defence budget to be dedicated to F-22 development, including $2.2 billion for the production of 10 LRIP F-22s.

To receive the money, the aircraft had to complete a series of key tasks in 2000, including flying Block 3 software with the crucial sensor fusion functionality that will make the F-22 the potent fighter that the USA requires. If the DAB does not approve LRIP go-ahead, the USAF and the manufacturers will be in limbo until the programme is finally killed or a compromise is reached. But the F-22 may be saved by the fact that the JSF's much-vaunted affordability depends on the US Department of Defense proceeding with other programmes that will provide technologies or capabilities crucial to its success.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Dassault and Eurofighter will be hoping key milestones will boost the Rafale and Typhoon, respectively, in international competitions. The French navy is scheduled to form its first Rafale squadron in 2001, which will work up with 12 fighters ahead of a first planned embarkation on the Charles de Gaulle nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in 2002. The first production Eurofighter is due to fly at BAE Systems' Warton factory in August, with the first aircraft due to be handed over to the UK Royal Air Force in June 2002.

A key competition for the Rafale, Eurofighter, the Russian Sukhoi Su-27/30 and Boeing F-15 is South Korea's F-X programme. An initial order for 40 fighters is expected towards mid-2001; the total requirement is 120 aircraft. Although the F-15 is seen as a firm favourite because of the big US military presence in South Korea, Dassault and Eurofighter will each hope to beat the other into third place. For Dassault, having not been downselected in Norway and having lost out in Greece, losing to Eurofighter for a third time would surely lead to re-evaluation of the fighter's export potential, especially given EADS' stake in both aircraft.

Russia's moribund military aircraft manufacturers appear to be in for another year of misery. Unless President Vladimir Putin delivers on a promised increase in defence spending, it is unlikely that Russian manufacturers will receive many orders, although December's co-operation deal with EADS provides some hope for the future. A handful of contracts from China, India and elsewhere for Su-27/30s will keep some factories ticking over. RSK, however, has not won significant orders for the MiG-29 Fulcrum in recent years and the upgrade of early Russian air force MiG-29s to SMT standard appears to be providing little significant work.

Also in Europe, the Airbus Military Company will be hoping to finalise a contract for its A400M military airlifter. If negotiations drag on for too long, there is a risk that the UK and possibly others will withdraw and seek other solutions, such as the Boeing C-17 Globemaster and Lockheed Martin C-130J Hercules.

An important change on the large aircraft front will be the USAF kicking off its 18-month-to-two-year analysis of alternatives for replacing its 550-odd Boeing KC-135 tankers. The potential size of any deal will mean that Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon (possibly teamed with Airbus and/or EADS) will monitor developments closely.

Attack helicopter competitions are set to be invigorated in Australia and Japan. The former's Air 87 competition, which stalled when Bell objected to not being shortlisted and successfully appealed to the Australian courts, was relaunched in mid-December, while Japan, having emerged from the worst of its economic slump, plans to relaunch its attack helicopter procurement around March.

Expected competitors include Bell with the AH-1Z, Boeing with the AH-64D Apache Longbow, and Eurocopter with the Tiger. Each has teamed with a Japanese company, but the final size and shape of any deal will depend on whether the Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force selects a "high-low mix" combining an attack helicopter with a version of the indigenous Mitsubishi OH-1, dubbed the AH-2.

In Europe, EH Industries, Eurocopter and Sikorsky will be awaiting the outcome of the Nordic Standard Helicopter Programme, which combines the needs of Denmark, Finland and Sweden (with Norway now having only observer status) into a single deal for up to 100 aircraft. A decision is due in the first half.

Source: Flight International