GUY NORRIS / LOS ANGELES
War weary engines needing new parts, upgrades and the transition of research into production are all contributing to a robust market
After a decade of post-Cold War stabilisation, the world's military engine makers are gearing up for what appears to be a decade of increased turnover and steady growth. Given the gloomy state of their civil compatriots, this surprisingly rosy picture is a welcome trend and is the product of several factors. They include the transition of numerous research and development efforts into production programmes, increased spares demand for war-weary engines and more upgrade kits to maintain the ageing global inventory.
In the turbofan, turbojet and turboprop area, General Electric, Pratt & Whitney (including Pratt & Whitney Canada) and Rolls-Royce are all predicted to enjoy strong growth in the near term. According to US consultants MB Strategy, P&W is expected to dominate the picture until around 2008, when GE could assume the lead - at least for three years. P&W's fortunes are closely tied to the build-up of the F119-powered Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 and F135-powered F-35 programmes. A dip in P&W's revenues could come later in the decade as work on the F100 and F117 declines in step with the slowdown of the Boeing F-15 and C-17 and Lockheed Matin F-16 programmes. According to Mark Bobbi of MB Strategy, GE's strong growth will be powered by "a ramp-up in F/A-18 production rates, the initial stages of the [Lockheed] C-5 re-engining programme, deliveries of the [F110-powered] F-15K, and the production of CF6 engines for the tanker programmes".
F-35 competition
Although the predicted sales of GE and P&W appear to diverge sharply towards the end of the forecast period, Bobbi believes the lines will once again converge as competition for the F-35 heats up. MB Strategy figures factor in the potential delay to GE's F136, signalled recently by the Joint Strike Fighter programme office (see GE entry), but this could be altered again should the UK or GE bring funding pressure to bear. "Don't be surprised if GE throws in some of its own money," says Bobbi. Another potential impact on the spread of JSF-related sales could be the threat of delays to the F119-based P&W F135 engine, particularly for the heavier short take-off and vertical landing variant.
R-R is also expected to see JSF-related growth as well as enjoy the benefits of increased EJ200 revenues as series Eurofighter production gets under way. It is also likely to enjoy continuing strong military sales through its Indianapolis-built engines, as well as bursts of sustainment upgrades, spares and new sales of its Adour and Pegasus lines. Overall sales figures for R-R are estimated on the conservative side due to the relative difficulty of tracking European company contract values, and could be a lot higher, says Bobbi.
On the turboshaft front, GE is expected to retain its market dominance over the next decade, due mainly to continuing strong demand for its T700/CT7 families, a robust upgrade market and likely involvement in new generation successors. R-R is expected to see solid growth over the same period, and could come close to GE's market share by 2013 - thanks largely to its T406 product line, as well as its involvement in the T800 with Honeywell.
Other partnership products such as the Rolls-Royce Turbomecca TRM322 are also expected to be significant contributors. "The big winner is Rolls-Royce in terms of the Bell-Boeing V-22, and even if it is cancelled, the T406 will play a big part in powering whatever replaces it," Bobbi believes.
Turboshaft contribution
The T800 and other steady turboshaft lines such as the T55 are set to play a major part on Honeywell's improved performance over the period, predicts MB Strategy. P&WC and Snecma seem likely to hold on to a secure chunk of the business, with a small percentage of the market up for grabs.
Source: Flight International
