The National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) has come a long way since its humble beginnings as the Corporation Aircraft Owners Association, which held its first convention in New York on 24 September, 1947, attracting 19 companies and collecting around $1,900 in revenues.
Fifty years later, the contrast could not be starker. The NBAA has announced a record-breaking attendance for the show, held in Dallas, Texas, on 23-25 September, having welcomed more than 26,000 visitors and 875 companies. According to the NBAA, the 1997 meeting is expected to generate more than $7 million of the association's $10.6 million budget for the year. Speaking at the convention, Michael Graff, president of Bombardier Business Aircraft division, said: "Without the NBAA, the business-aircraft industry would not be as prosperous, nor would it be poised for its best decade in business aviation."
Graff's claim is underlined by AlliedSignal's annual Business Aviation Market Outlook, which was greeted by manufacturers with a great deal of excitement, with its many startling predictions. In summary, the report projects that deliveries of new business jets will approach 5,300 units, valued at nearly $60 billion, for the period 1998-2008. It adds that deliveries will peak in 1999 - but nevertheless will remain at near-record-breaking levels - before surging on to another record peak in 2007-8.
The survey forecasts that North America will continue to dominate the world business-aircraft market. Operators within this region are predicted "-to replace or expand the equivalent of 26% of their existing jet fleets with new aircraft during the next five years", with aircraft age, a need for more range, and better cabin passenger space mentioned most frequently as reasons. For the period 1998-2008, the study forecasts that worldwide deliveries of large business aircraft will total about 722.
AlliedSignal, however, claims that the largest growth segment is in the medium- to medium-large aircraft category. Because of its "high customer value", this market is forecast to account for deliveries of 1,500 aircraft by 2008. For the medium- and light-aircraft sectors, the survey estimates a worldwide market pegged at 1,400 deliveries over the forthcoming ten years.
Fractional ownership, it is forecast, will continue to grow by about 50% a year for the next five years. This claim will come as no surprise to aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Dassault Aviation, which announced at the show that they intend to enter the shared-ownership arena at some stage with the Boeing Business Jet (BBJ) and Falcon 2000, respectively.
For the past two years, the battle of the ultra-long-range business jets has centred on the Gulfstream V and Bombardier Global Express. Now, two new sparring partners, Airbus and Boeing, have entered the ring with the A319 Corporate Jetliner (CJ) and BBJ, respectively. The Dallas convention marked Boeing's second NBAA appearance since the $34 million BBJ was announced in July 1996, and the first for Airbus, following its launch of the $35 million A319CJ at the Paris air show in June.
Boeing announced at the show that orders for the BBJ, which is scheduled for certification in October 1998, have already exceeded expectations and now total around 25, while Airbus, not wanting to be usurped, signed the first customers for its A319CJs, and claims to have secured seven orders in three months. The European consortium expects annual sales of long-range executive aircraft to total 60-65 units, of which Airbus and Boeing will sell 24. Boeing, on the other hand, hopes to build around 24 BBJs a year from 1999 onwards. Both manufacturers believe that the large cabin size is a vital ingredient for aircraft sales. "The A319CJ has three times as much space as the Global Express and GV," says John Leahy, Airbus senior vice-president for commercial aircraft. "We're out of the mailing-tube concept into more productive flying," he adds.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the growth of the single-engined turbine-aircraft market continued to promote a great deal of interest at NBAA. Following the US Federal Aviation Administration's agreement to allow commercial instrument-flight-rules (IFR) operations with single-engined aircraft, manufacturers are beginning to switch their allegiances from less-reliable pistons to turbine engines.
New companies are also entering the market, having realised the potential of this lucrative niche. In the turboprop field, New Piper Aircraft unveiled a mock-up of its six-seat Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-42A-powered Malibu Meridian, and Pilatus declared that it will increase production of its PC-12 from four to five aircraft a month "in anticipation of increased sales".
In the jet-aircraft field, VisionAire announced its plans for a family of small single-turbofan aircraft which would form a follow-on to its Vantage all-composite business jet. Century Aerospace showed a mock-up of its Williams-Rolls FJ-44-powered Century Jet, for which it began taking orders. Canada's Alberta Aerospace unveiled plans to develop a four-seat jet trainer to add to its recently launched Phoenix FanJet, and New Piper announced that it, too, is considering entering the single-turbofan market. According to Alberta Aerospace president Ray Johnson, "-there will be tremendous opportunities for [turbofan] power in the next few years, so any airframe manufacturer should be jumping into jet aircraft now and not waste time with turboprops."
Source: Flight International
