The International Air Transport Association is forecasting a continued traffic contraction early this year, with the first signs of improvement expected from late this year and an airline industry recovery from 2003. In its special interim passenger traffic forecast, IATA says the strongest recovery is expected in the transatlantic, transpacific and Europe-Middle East markets.
The figures in the new forecast annual average growth rates (AAGR) are compared with the original predictions for the 2001-5 period. "Significant downgrades" to the figures had to be made for the transatlantic, transpacific and Europe-Middle East markets after 11 September.
Revisions include:
Intra-European passenger traffic revenue passenger kilometres will increase at an AAGR of 4%, "with low cost carriers continuing to stimulate demand"; Scheduled international passenger growth for the period will be down to 3.5% AAGR from the 4.7% predicted at the beginning of 2001; domestic passenger AAGR is down to 1.6% from 2.8%, and is forecast to decline in 2002 before recovery in 2003.Meanwhile, the Association of European Airlines is continuing to publish its analysis of year-on-year weekly results since 11 September last year for its member carriers, which include all the European major scheduled airlines.
The most disastrous passenger traffic drops ran from the week ending 16 September to the last week of November. The worst period for international traffic was mid-October, with a drop of 20.9%. The lowest falls (more than 33%) were on the north Atlantic. But the latest weekly figures show a gradual upward trend.
Source: Flight International
