Airbus and Boeing to battle for major order as carrier looks to replace single-aisle aircraft
Japan Airlines (JAL) is preparing to release a tender for about 50 new narrowbody aircraft to replace its fleet of Boeing MD-80/90s and Boeing 737-400s.
Industry sources say Airbus and Boeing anticipate that JAL will place a large order for Airbus A320 family aircraft or 737s within the next few months for deliveries starting in 2006 or 2007.
Sources say JAL's narrowbody aircraft requirement has leapfrogged ahead of a requirement for Boeing 767 replacements. JAL issued a tender for 767 replacements at the end of last year but then decided to postpone a potential order of Boeing 7E7s. JAL is now not expected to look again at 767 replacements, required from 2009 or 2010, for at least several more months.
Airbus and Boeing initially expected JAL to issue a tender for MD-80/90 and 737-400 replacements last year. But the carrier decided against issuing the tender and pushed back the requirement until the end of the decade. Sources say engine problems earlier this year with the MD-80 fleet JAL inherited from its takeover of Japan Air System (JAS) and changes in the domestic market have prompted JAL to again move the requirement.
JAL was forced to briefly ground its 25 MD-81/87s in January after compressor vane cracks were found in several Pratt & Whitney JT8D-217-series engines. Sources say if JAL does not replace this fleet in the next few years it will also have to invest heavily in upgrades to meet new area navigation requirements.
ANA's decision to launch a low-cost carrier in March to improve its domestic market share also may be forcing JAL to reconsider its domestic strategy. After completing the JAS merger earlier this year, JAL caught up with ANA in the domestic market, where the latter had long been the dominant player. ANA last year ordered 45 737-700s for delivery from October 2005.
Sources say Airbus is confident it can win the JAL narrowbody competition because JAL, unlike ANA, prefers two sources of aircraft. JAL's only Airbus aircraft, A300s, will be phased out over the next few years.
Airbus is also hoping to sell JAL Airbus A380s. The 7E7 is still considered the favourite over the proposed Airbus A350 in the 767 replacement competition whenever that is revived.
Airbus is also pushing the A380 to ANA but sources say ANA will only order A380s if JAL does.
Sources say JAL may initially order only about 30 narrowbodies and hold off for several years before deciding on the full requirement. In this scenario, JAL would replace its fleet of over 40 MD-81/87s and MD-90s but keep its fleet of just over 20 Boeing 737-400s.
This less-expensive option could be attractive to JAL given its recent poor financial performance and would probably only be pursued if 737s were selected in preference to the A320.
BRENDAN SOBIE / YOKOHAMA
Source: Flight International
