The market for space launchers remains depressed but there are some signs of a near-term revival, according to a report published at the show on Sunday.
US consultancy Forecast International/DMS says about 700 vehicles valued at $61 billion will be produced between now and 2012 to launch a projected 720 scientific, military and communications payloads.
Last year, slips in the US Air Force's Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELV) programme and the grounding of Ariane 5, Proton and Sea Launch meant that only 65 of the planned 74 launches actually took place. Even so, the tally represented an improvement on 2001's score of 53 and fell not far short of the 80-a-year average of the late 1990s.
"The backlog from 2002 and current deployment plans suggest about 70 vehicles will be launched this year," says Forecast analyst Shelby Gruner. "That would represent a second year of slow but perceptible growth since the collapse of the Little LEO market."
While Europe's Ariane was the busiest single launcher in 2002, Forecast expects Boeing's Delta IV to take the lead this year. Russia's Soyuz is also likely to be active, as its International Space Station replenishment responsibilities grow as a result of the Shuttle grounding.
Looking further ahead, Forecast anticipates a more significant upturn from 2008, when demand for geostationary communications satellite capacity is expected to start growing again and many of the existing GEOs fall due for replacement.
Source: Flight Daily News
