Aermacchi believes there is a potential advanced trainer market for 2,300 aircraft over the next 30 years, says Sergio Coniglio, Aermacchi senior marketing executive.
Today, he says, there are around 3,400 advanced trainers in service, of which around 65% have been flying for 25 years or longer. "The current trend in replacement is around two for three," says Coniglio, adding that Aermacchi believes it can secure 600-plus orders for the M346.
These figures exclude Russia and the CIS, where Aermacchi's agreement with Yakovlev gives the Russian company a free hand. It does, however, include the USA as Aermacchi, like some other trainer manufacturers, does not believe the US Air Force's plan to retain the Northrop T-38 Talon until 2040 is definitive. Coniglio says the peak replacement period is after 2010.
Another unknown is the Eurotraining programme. This could reduce the replacement market as 12 European nations will share common assets, but it is also possible that not all current participants will remain with the programme.
Another potential market is the countries with lightweight supersonic fighters such as the Mikoyan MiG-21 and its Chinese sister the Chengdu jF-7 in their fleet. Such countries may combine a purchase of advanced trainers and light combat aircraft, says Coniglio. "There is a reduction in the market for advanced trainers, but there is the possibility of this new market to compensate," he adds.
Source: Flight International
