Tim Ripley
Regional defence sales look set to bounce back after a 'bad' year in 1996 with only some $12-billion worth of sales to Middle East countries, say market analysts.
Barring the outbreak of a major conflict, experts expect regional defence sales to remain static or rise very slightly next year but a major boom is expected in the middle of the first decade of next century as Middle East air forces begin to renew their ageing fighter fleets.
"The regional arms market is a cyclical process, with peaks and troughs and we are now at the bottom of the trough, going up," says an analyst for a major European government.
By far the largest market is Saudi Arabia which took delivery of around $6-billion worth of defence equipment, mostly Boeing F-15S Strike Eagles and Panavia Tornado strike aircraft.
Regional sales in 1996 were down from $15 billion in 1995, according to a variety of sources.
Future shopping lists include several billions of dollars worth of combat aircraft, including the long-mooted $8-billion UAE strike fighter requirement, while Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Jordan all have substantial fleets of 1970s-vintage Northrop F-5 Freedom Fighters which will need replacing soon.
Egypt, Syria and Iran have large numbers of 1960s vintage Russian and Chinese-sourced MiG-19 and MiG-21 fighters.
Recent downturns in Pacific Rim economies enhance the importance of the Middle East defence market for the major defence exporting countries.
Russia has broken back into the Middle East market in recent years with sales to Kuwait, Iran and Turkey.
Most arms transfers are now paid by industrial offset say authoritative industry sources.
In recent years spending mix has changed with Middle East air forces increasing spending on upgrades ordnance, air crew training and infrastructure.
The Middle East market is also changing with many countries beginning to upgrade combat aircraft, rather than buying new.
Source: Flight Daily News
