A new report says turboprops and jets will have an equal share of the market for new trainers up to 2017 - but competition between types is going to be fierce
There is a market for 1,550 new fixed-wing trainers worth $17.1 billion by 2017, with jet and turboprop types likely to account for an almost 50:50 share, according to a new report from US-based Forecast International.
A current spike in deliveries accounted for largely by the supply of Boeing T-45C Goshawks to the US Navy and Hawker Beechcraft T-6 Texans to the same service and the US Air Force will peak next year, but annual deliveries will halve by the end of the study period, says Forecast International aerospace analyst Douglas Royce. Turboprop sales will reach around 784 aircraft in the next 10 years, with jet designs to secure orders for another 748 trainers worth $13.2 billion, according to his analysis.
KEY COMPETITIONS
Recent high profile competitions have seena handful of Western types battle for business in both the basic and advanced jet trainersectors, with nations including Singaporeand the United Arab Emirates providing the centre of attention. Pilatus's PC-21 turboprop won in the former nation's search for 19 new basic trainers, and a request for proposals for its AJT requirement is expected to be released later this year.
Already shortlisted in the UAE, the trio of Alenia Aermacchi's M-346, BAE Systems' Hawk 128, and the Korea Aerospace Industries/Lockheed Martin T-50 are expected to again square up in Singapore for an initially single-digit fleet of aircraft to replace theMcDonnell Douglas A4-SU Skyhawk. A decision on the Fighter Wings Course is not expected until at least mid-2009, however.
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| Additional sales of the Hawk AJT to India could contribute to continued business for the design worth $3.3 billion by 2017, says Forecast International |
The UAE could later this year announce its decision on a new training system to comprise an estimated 45-64 aircraft across both categories, having narrowed its search to the PC-21 and Alenia Aermacchi's M-311 basic jet trainer and the M-346 or T-50 AJT. With in-country flight trials already completed, it recently conducted an assessment of the bidders' related ground-based training and logistics support equipment offers.
Alenia Aermacchi late last year forecast sales of 140 M-346s over a five-year period, eyeing possible buyers including Singapore and the UAE, plus Chile, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The company last year received a launch order for the type, with Italy's Economic Development Ministry buying 15 to equip the Italian air force. The M-346 is also the favourite to deliver the Advanced European Jet Pilot Training requirement to nine nations. Royce is less bullish, however, predicting orders for just 95 of the aircraft by 2017.
Also still upgrading MB339CDIIs for the Italian air force, and to deliver the first two of eight CM-model examples to Malaysia in November, Alenia Aermacchi also says its new M-311 jet can be acquired for "a similar, if not lower cost" than a high-end turboprop.
BAE believes its Hawk 128 still has a bright future, although speculation has been rife about the long-term prospects for the type following its elimination last year from the UAE contest, along with Embraer's EMB-314 Super Tucano, and an order book which will currently run dry next year. Far from being at the end of the line, the Forecast International report says another 151 Hawks worth $3.3 billion will be built by 2017, with potential customers including a follow-on deal with India, plus new sales to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
The Indian air force will begin training courses using an initial 66 Hawk 132s in June, with 10 delivered to its Bidar air base by late February. At least 40 more of the aircraft could also be produced by Hindustan Aeronautics under a planned repeat order. Students will eventually move onto the Hawk after performing basic training on HAL's HJT-36 intermediate jet trainer, although Royce is pessimistic of orders for the indigenous type beyond 2010, noting that "the long-term outlook for the programme is cloudy".
BAE's partnership with Boeing on the US Navy's T-45 programme could also be set for renewal, according to industry sources, providing a further revival for the Hawk design.Boeing is also eyeing possible sales of the naval trainer to Greece, India and Israel.
South Korea's second course of students to train on the T-50 graduated at Gwang-Ju air base in March, with the nation having now received 24 aircraft from its initial order for 25. Some 27 pilots have now completed training on the type after flying KAI's KT-1 turboprop, and a third intake started in February. The manufacture could receive orders for 100 T/A-50s and 59 KT-1s by 2017, says Royce.
With an F/A-50 light attack variant also awaiting launch funding, KAI and Lockheed expect to eventually produce up to 300 for the South Korean air force, plus another 600 for export users - potentially including the US Air Force. "We see an attractive market worldwide," says J R Wildridge, Lockheed's T-50 marketing director.
Prospects for other advanced jet trainers are mixed, according to the report, with success stories including the Hongdu K-8, with a projected 133 unit sales, and Russia's Yakovlev, tipped to secure orders for 158 Yak-130s.
In the basic trainer sector, Royce believes the market will continue to be dominated by the T-6A/B on order for the USAF/USN Joint Primary Aircraft Training System deal, with 491 to potentially be supplied to the services and to meet emerging export opportunities. This would represent business worth around $2.9 billion, he says.
Despite its recent defeats in contests in Singapore and the UAE, Embraer's Super Tucano will also fare well, with 105 aircraft projected for delivery by 2017.
Switzerland's Pilatus has targeted sales of 350-500 PC-21s over the life of the programme, with operations with the 25 ordered so far for Singapore and Switzerland set to begin early this year. Royce expects the company to deliver 116 PC-21s by 2017, with attrition replacement or fleet expansion deals also possible for its PC-7 Mk II and PC-9 family of modular trainers.
Royce believes there will be several casualties of a current fierce competition in the military trainer sector, including Aero Vodochody'sL-159, Lockheed Martin Aircraft Argentina's AT-63 Pampa and the RSK MiG-AT, which he believes will struggle to secure significant sales. "There are too many manufacturers chasing too small a market, and the competition for even small contracts is going to be intense," he notes.
Through-life support costs play an important part in a nation's selection criteria, but these can be hard to quantify when a new aircraft is on offer. "You can play with lifecycle costs up, down and sideways as much as you like," says a senior official from one European manufacturer. "The proof in the pudding is signing a contract to say: 'I will stand behind this number for the next 20 years'. The credibility of the company standing behind the numbers is very important to the end user."
PISTON SECTOR IN DECLINE
Suppliers of piston-engined trainers will suffer the worst fate over the next decade, according to Royce, who predicts the sale of just 18 more Alenia Aermacchi SF260s. "The market for piston-powered military trainers is dying out," he says.
This opinion appears to be at least partially supported by Grob Aerospace, which is seeking a more powerful and environmentally friendly engine for types such as its piston-powered G115 and G120 models. However, diesel power plants lack vital aerobatic performance and turboprops are currently too expensive for the primary training sector: a reality supported by Grob's inability to find a customer for its turboprop-powered G140.
But with almost 250 G115/120-series aircraft sold to nations including Canada, France, Israel and the UK over recent years, Grob's director of special mission and training aircraft Denzil White says: "We will hopefully retain a niche in the market." Near-term opportunities exist in countries including Australia, Greece, Turkey and the UK, the company says.
Source: Flight International
