As 2009 began, the production plans for Airbus and Boeing defied logic. The world's economies were in meltdown, traffic was in freefall and banks had stopped lending. Could the airframers seriously be contemplating the highest delivery numbers in history?
Well, as we head into the last quarter, it looks like they've pulled it off, with mainliner output on course to reach about 960 aircraft this year.
How have they done it? A combination of factors has come into play. First, the export credit agencies have come to the rescue, providing substantially more financing than in previous years. Second, because of volatile oil prices, airlines have found benefit in continuing to take more-efficient new-build aircraft they have on order, and use them to replace their older, fuel-thirsty types, rather than for growth.
But the airlines have also endured pain by stimulating demand through fare discounting to prop up load factors and taking a big hit on yield.
And therein lies the rub. This situation is not sustainable, and many airlines could already be counting the cost of this policy as the winter approaches. Even with financing available, some will struggle to muster the funds to complete delivery transactions.
The airframers may have pulled off a production miracle in 2009, but they face an even bigger challenge to repeat it in 2010.
Source: Flight International
