A year ago, the received wisdom was that huge backlogs would cushion airframers against a downturn in orders sparked by the global economic downturn.
Since then, the economic outlook has worsened and the industry has awoken to the fact that the real problem is not a slowing of orders, but a spate of cancellations and deferrals.
Orders, after all, are based on where an airline expects their business to be in several years' time, when the aircraft has to be paid for - and everyone expects today's recession to be a distant memory.
This year's production, however, is for deliveries that have to be paid for imminently, when airlines are battling to save cash and credit has all but dried up.
Already that is feeding into the supply chain and manufacturers - despite healthy long-term backlogs - will soon have to face up to slashing output and costs.
Recovery will come. There is too much latent demand for air travel for the industry to go into long-term tailspin. But this year - and perhaps the next one too - protecting these precious backlogs will be a priority. It may be something that the industry finds is largely out of its hands.
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© Airbus |
Source: Flight International
