Kevin O'Toole/LONDON
The jet-airliner market provided little to shout about in 1994, but the performance may prove more encouraging than some of the headline figures suggest.
Boeing is right to point out that the intake of new orders for the three big manufacturers was the worst in more than a decade. Boeing, in particular, had cause for concern. Its own tally of new firm orders more than halved, to 120, and, worse still, the US giant was left lagging behind Airbus Industrie for the first time (Flight International, 11-17 January).
The better news comes from the fact that, while airlines ordered less, they also cancelled fewer aircraft. In 1993, orderbooks were ravaged by cancellations, leaving little to show for the volume of new business won over the year. Boeing was left with a net gain of only 35 aircraft, while Airbus effectively lost 31 orders and McDonnell Douglas (MDC) shed three.
For 1994, the cancellations were less severe for all of the majors. Boeing ended the year with a net gain of 74 orders and Airbus was close behind with 71, while MDC emerged from the reorganisations in its orderbook with a balance of four aircraft.
Although Airbus may have closed the gap on orders during 1994, Boeing is quick to point out that its European rival recorded less than half the number of deliveries. Seattle has been moved to cite deliveries as the best true measure of market share. Boeing has some justification, given the depressed state of the market and its erratic effect on orderbooks over the past three years.
Boeing's backlog is also still one-third larger than that of its main rival, although the lead will continue to edge down if Airbus maintains its level of order intake. That will not become apparent for another few years, however.
Airbus, nevertheless, did well in 1994. Although the total number of deliveries fell, the increasing number of A330/340 widebodies in the mix meant that revenues were up marginally, at $8.5 billion. The backlog is lower, but still stands at a healthy $51.8 billion.
The unprecedented scale of the backlogs built up in the 1980s has proved a mixed blessing, however. While the sheer size of the backlog has helped to cushion manufacturers over a severe recession, it is also, in part, responsible for the present order drought.
Manufacturers and analysts alike believe that 1994 may prove to be the low point in the recession, but no-one is predicting any sudden recovery, with at least a couple more years of down-beat figures to come.
The regional-jet-aircraft market is also starting to look more stable, with Fokker and British Aerospace/Avro having stripped out the last of their sizeable fleets of white-tails (aircraft built, but not sold).
Outright sales are still rare and both companies have now set up operations to manage the financing and leasing parts of the business, with some success. The last BAe 146, for example, has now been found a home by BAe's Asset Management Organisation.
Avro has regained its momentum on the RJ programme, with a more comfortable cushion of orders and an impressively slick production operation. Over the year, Avro has cut assembly in half and raised productivity by 40%.
Fokker, which is in the final phases of its own sweeping restructuring, argues that, despite depressed order figures, it has weathered the recession better than most. Net orders are difficult to calculate in this volatile market, but the Dutch manufacturer estimates that since 1991 it has netted a balance of 99 new orders, against only 42 for BAe/Avro, 38 for the Boeing 737-500 and none for the MDC MD-87.
Figures for the CIS remain difficult to assess, with many of the deliveries being made from growing stocks of white-tails as and when customers appear. The only sizeable forward order from 1994 is claimed by Tupolev for the Tu-204. Tupolev says that former Aeroflot units have committed to 268 "soft orders", which should be confirmed now that the aircraft has been certificated.
Source: Flight International
