A NEW US FEDERAL Aviation Administration's 12-year growth forecast for US commercial aviation shows that passenger numbers grew faster in 1994 than at any time since 1987.
"The commercial-aviation industry breathed a collective sigh of relief in fiscal year 1994 as most sectors of the industry recorded their first robust growth of the 1990s," the FAA says. It predicts more good news, although it "...is well aware that one year of strong growth does not necessarily indicate a continuing trend".
In 1994, US commercial air-carrier passenger numbers were up by 8.2%, to 518 million, the largest growth since 1987. Revenue passenger kilometres rose by 5.5%, to 821 billion, the strongest growth since 1986. US airlines collectively reported net profits of $1.2 billion in 1994, although four major carriers recorded losses ranging from $413 million to $1.2 billion.
Regional airlines continue to grow the fastest, with passenger traffic up 14.3% in 1994, in part because some carriers are switching to small jet-powered aircraft. The commuter fleet is expected to increase from 2,179 aircraft to 3,250 by 2006.
The general-aviation fleet is expected to decline from 1994's figure of 176,000 aircraft, to 174,600 by 2006, although the turbine fleet will increase by 2.5% annually.
US domestic and international air-carrier journeys are expected to rise in 1995, but yields in both sectors will decline. US airline fleets will rise, from 4,426 aircraft, to 6,531 by 2006.
Source: Flight International
