Since the glory days of the Apollo programme, space has been more and more a commercial market. But the technical and financial risks remain high, and industry and investors alike need convincing of its long-term viability
Space must pay, if humans are ever to live and work there. Space does pay for commercial satellite operators and launch providers, but it remains a risky market - technically and financially - and the massive cost of putting men in space has far outweighed any commercial return.
NASA and its partners hope to reduce that imbalance as they begin to commercialise the International Space Station (ISS). The US space agency knows its plans for the exploration and development of Earth's neighbourhood, and beyond, depend on proving that the long-awaited ISS can be a commercial success.
Space has been commercialised for many years. Arthur C Clarke's "invention" of the geostationary communications satellite has resulted in lucrative revenue for many service providers, while the business of relaying telephone calls and broadcasting television channels remains the space industry's most visible source of income.
New commercial applications are continually emerging, but the unforgiving nature of space makes executing a business plan extremely challenging. Last year's financial failure of the well-funded Iridium mobile satellite communications system has damaged the credibility of space ventures with potential investors.
Iridium has been rescued from bankruptcy and freed from the massive debts accumulated in establishing the system, which comprises a constellation of over 70 spacecraft in low Earth orbit. But the mobile satellite communications market has yet to prove its financial viability.
The same can be said for other new ventures, such as those offering high-resolution Earth imagery. The pictures from spacecraft such as Space Imaging's Lockheed Martin-built Ikonos are stunning, but are there enough customers out there willing to pay for imagery so sharp they can count the cars in the parking lot? A better bet, many analysts reckon, is digital audio radio, with two systems - Sirius and XMRadio - due to enter service next year.
Internet in space
The industry's saviour in these challenging times has proved to be the Internet, which has grown to account for up to 50% of all satellite traffic, according to Leo Mondale, vice-president of European launch firm Arianespace's US arm. "It is up to 225 transponders from zero four years ago," he says.
Established operators are racing to add broadband satellite capacity to capture the burgeoning Internet protocol (IP) service market. Soon-to-be-privatised Intelsat, for example, has just announced plans for the $1.5 billion purchase of a next-generation broadband satellite system, to be deployed in 2004.
Despite its obvious vitality, the Internet satellite market has its risks, not least because the terrestrial telecommunications service providers are also racing to meet demand with higher and higher capacity fibreoptic networks. Justifying the need for more expensive, lower capacity satellite links is the major challenge.
The biggest market opportunity is seen in solving the so-called "last mile" problem. This is based on the belief that it will never be economical to extend terrestrial networks to every end-user, particularly in regions of the world with undeveloped telecoms infrastructures. "Broadband satellite solutions are extremely attractive to telecom service providers seeking to complement their terrestrial offerings and provide similar global solutions to every customer they serve," says Intelsat chief executive Conny Kullman.
Simple approach
Europe's Alcatel Space Industries is one of several manufacturers working on technology for second-generation broadband Internet satellites. "Our approach is very simple," says business development manager Michel Andrau. "We're doing a lot of research and development to establish whether broadband satellites have a place in the Internet market."
For Alcatel Space, the problem is highlighted by the fact that its owner, French telecommunications giant Alcatel, already has an extensive ground-based communications division, which enables it to compare the advantages of satellite-based Internet technologies with those offered by the terrestrial community.
The company's Alcatel Spacecom division is also moving towards becoming an investor and operator in the satellite business. With its US strategic partner Loral Space and Communications, it is a prime investor in the Toulouse-based Europe Star multimedia satellite programme. With France Telecom and Loral, it is also involved in the Globalstar mobile satellite communications system, developing the 80-satellite Skybridge low-Earth constellation.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Alcatel's conclusion is that both ground- and space-based solutions have significant advantages and disadvantages and should therefore co-exist. While terrestrial networks offer direct point-to-point links between Internet users, geostationary satellites can send vast amounts of information to several Earth sites simultaneously, so-called point-to-multipoint, acting as a "trunking" connector.
"Operators don't yet know which is the most important," says Andrau. "Telecommunications is evolving so fast that it is impossible to commit to developing a satellite with a 15-year lifetime when you know that in two to three years the whole situation is going to change."
Interactive signals
Internet connections have to occur in real time, which throws up a major problem with geostationary satellites: that of the time delay inherent in sending interactive signals from the user, via a satellite located 36,000km (22,360 miles) up in space, to a specific address back to Earth. This makes real-time two-way Internet communications virtually impossible. So while sending e-mails is not a problem, future scenarios in which correspondents are permanently connected to each other via satellites - the so-called "primary role" - will not work.
Another difficulty with having satellites perform the primary (interactive) role is that of developing a spaceborne service provider able to route Internet signals from one addressed individual to another. This would require a lightweight computer capable of acting as a "telephone exchange in the sky". So far, such a computer has been developed only by the USA for its Milstar military communications satellite, and the technology is unavailable to European companies because of technology transfer regulations.
There are also unresolved questions about how, for example, satellites can handle billing, passwords and other security functions which the terrestrial community has already solved or is solving. "The problem is the signal processing technology - either we form joint ventures with US companies or we develop our own," says Alcatel Space's Andrau.
A year ago, Intelsat, interested in what companies could offer for satellite-based Internet services, issued a request for information in which it asked about 70 questions on such matters as technology, performance and industrial capability. The aim was to judge the likely capabilities of second-generation Internet satellites.
Feedback to date indicates operators are tempted to stick with highly developed "first generation" satellites, which act like a "bent pipe" in routing signals from one area to another - albeit with a new breed of Ka-band payloads, which operate at gigabytes/s speeds instead of the megabytes possible with Ku-band types. The question therefore seems to be centred on whether satellites will act as primary or secondary elements in the Internet revolution.
Whatever happens, Andrau says they are bound to play an important role. "It is reasonable to assume, for example, that satellites will be the best solution to handling overflow and congestion on the ground-based system." A geostationary satellite could "see" congestion building up on secondary (non-interactive) elements of the system and take the overload.
Using its ground-based communications background, Alcatel Space is working on an intermediate Internet solution that would provide enough on-board "intelligent filtering" to provide a useful interactive service, but would stop short of instant connectivity. The company is also talking to its sister terrestrial division about how best to use ground-based routing and processing techniques in space.
"It is the first time we have talked together so deeply on providing a solution to the same market," says Andrau.
Alcatel is one of several manufacturers to have received two recent requests for proposals for "first generation" multibeam Ka-band broadband satellites. It will also be among several to answer requests, due to be issued in December/January, for broadband satellites to be launched in 2003-4.
Efforts to improve European competence in satellite-based communication services centre on the European Space Agency's Artes 3 research programme, which is being managed in three parts: developing satcom multimedia markets, developing satcom system elements, and pioneering novel systems such as interactive Internet satellites.
Some in the industry are sceptical about the long-term need for interactive Internet satellites, however. "We believe operators will want to see how first-generation satellites fit into the multimedia picture before committing to second-generation development," says Andrau. "I believe satellites will turn out to be highly complementary to land-based Internet systems, especially where land-based Internet either does not exist or is underdeveloped, such as Africa and Russia."
Japan foresees a similar demand in the Asia-Pacific region and plans to demonstrate technology for a high-speed Internet satellite with the next in the National Space Development Agency's ETS series of engineering test satellites. Japan believes that satellites will be the most cost-effective way of installing an Internet infrastructure in undeveloped regions.
Desktop space
The Internet revolution is also likely to have a major impact on satellite operation. NASA is experimenting with a distributed command and control system that would allow a researcher sitting at a desktop anywhere in the world to operate a space experiment via the Internet.
Demonstrations have shown that issues such as sequencing competing commands from several sources and ensuring security against "hackers" can be overcome. Internet-based command and control is likely to become a reality within the next few years, and could prove key to the successful commercialisation of the ISS by reducing the cost of, and improving the access to, experiments on the Space Station.
There is nothing new about the concept of launching a space station into Earth orbit and sending astronauts there to carry out experiments, so why should scientists get excited about the construction of the International Space Station?
The answer is that the unprecedented size of the project - in terms of the level of international co-operation, available funding and the physical dimensions of the ISS itself - offers the first real opportunity to demonstrate the scientific and economic cases for establishing a permanent manned presence in space.
The European Space Agency (ESA), like its US equivalent NASA, is well advanced with plans to farm out to industry about one-third of the capacity of its ISS laboratory modules, bringing the prospect of everyday commerce in space a step closer. The ISS is likely also to serve as a staging post and assembly point for future missions, possibly including a manned Mars shot many years in the future.
"We are taking a dramatic step forward," says Jörg Feustel-Büechl, director of manned spaceflight and microgravity. "Researchers will be able to operate in space as they do on Earth. I'm sure we can expect many times more results than we have achieved before.
"The ISS is also a stepping stone towards future space exploration and could be used as a platform for going back to the Moon or on to Mars." Feustel-Büechl says the Space Station will be available to demonstrate the technologies and life support systems required for a manned mission to Mars of up to two years' duration. ESA scientists also believe the establishment of commercial mines on the Moon will eventually become viable and that the ISS could play a role as an intermediate assembly point.
The agency recently invited industry to submit proposals for the commercial exploitation of the ISS,with the key aim of signing up an organisation to take responsibility for marketing and selling the available capacity on the European scientific modules. Initial indications are that no single bidder is willing to take on the full commercial risk single-handedly, says ESA.
Feustel-Büechl says he would like to see "classical industries" such as the oil, pharmaceutical and medical sectors partnering researchers to sponsor commercial activities on the ISS, although the Station is not expected to be fully completed before 2006.
"The real acceptance will only come once the [completed] Station is there, when we will have very regular access," he says. "But we have to be realistic - I do not see a factory in space. What I really see is that we will use space, microgravity and observation to better understand processes on Earth and make everyday products for life better."
The European space agency is keen to overcome the disappointing outcome of its attempts to sell commercial space on the more than 20 Spacehab missions that were launched on the Space Shuttle, which failed to capture the imagination of industry because of their limited duration.
"I think that at last we have all the tools in hand to promote commercialisation in a way that we never could before," says Marc Heppener, ESA head of ISS utilisation and microgravity promotion.
A potential stumbling block for industry remains the fact that access to space remains far from cheap, with the cost of transporting one kilogram of payload to the ISS and returning it to Earth put at $40,000. Some 50 applied research projects, many at least partly funded by industry, have already been selected by ESA as candidates to fly on the ISS.
Jochen Graf, ESA's head of ISS exploitation preparation, says an unexpected bonus has been the surge in interest from companies simply seeking the right to use the Station's image or ISS branding for marketing, entertainment and educational products. "We are trying to penetrate innovative markets where we offer not physical access to the ISS but the 'virtual image' of the Station," says Graf. "Here we are entering a completely new field."
Using the Station's image to sell breakfast cereal seems like a small step towards the commercialisation of space, but everything counts when it comes to proving that space can be made to pay. With ISS assembly now well under way, NASA and its partners are beginning to think about what will come next - and making sure that it is commercially viable will be an important part of their planning.
Future missions
NASA already knows where it wants to go - into high Earth orbit and on to the Moon and Mars. The agency's Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) team has launched a programme to develop the in-space architecture needed to support future missions beyond low Earth orbit.
"We saw a significant drop-off in funding after the Space Shuttle was completed. This time it will be different," says John Mankins, manager of the HEDS Technology/ Commercialisation Initiative (HCTI). "We can't do that if we hope to sustain the expansion of human activity in space over time."
The 25-year programme has three phases. The near-term goal is to "fly the Shuttle safely and complete the ISS" while investing in research and technology to establish the foundation for future missions. In the mid-term, NASA plans to venture beyond low Earth orbit and into the "Earth's neighbourhood", defined as the Moon and the Earth-Moon and Earth-Sun libration points - L1 and L2 - which are stable locations suitable for space stations. In the far term, NASA is aiming for Mars. Beyond that lies a mission to the asteroid belt.
Each phase requires longer duration missions, from the 30-90 days possible on the ISS to 2,000 days and longer for a mission to the asteroids. Each stage will therefore involve the development of technology to support the next phase. The initial five-year HCTI is aimed at developing technology to enable humans to live and work in deep space for up to three months. Later phases would extend this to three years.
Coupled with the mission duration goals are cost reduction targets. "We have to start with the launch, and low-cost access to space," says Mankins. "Getting into space cheaply is critical to our strategy. It will not be particularly affordable if we throw away 100t of expensive aerospace hardware every time. "
NASA's new Space Launch Initiative (SLI) aims to develop, by 2010, commercially operated second-generation reusable vehicles that will reduce low Earth orbit launch costs by a factor of 10.SLI will also begin work on third-generation vehicles that will reduce launch costs still further.
"While SLI is driving down the cost of getting into space, HCTI will be tackling the cost of working and travelling in space," says Mankins. The near-term (2010-15) goal is to reduce the costs of initial human missions beyond LEO by a factor of five to 10 below estimates of the 1990s. The mid-term (2015-20) goal is to cut the costs of initial interplanetary missions by a factor of 10, and the long-term (beyond 2020) goal is to reduce the costs of sustained human interplanetary exploration by a factor of 20.
Technology for in-space transportation will be critical to reducing costs, says Mankins. There will be difficult trade-offs to make, however. "The most fuel-efficient engines are very low thrust," he says. As a result, NASA is "going back to the future" and dusting off Mars mission concepts from 20 years ago. These include the "split/sprint" scenario, in which the larger cargo vehicle is sent ahead using high-efficiency, low-thrust electric propulsion, then the smaller, faster, manned craft follows under higher-thrust, lower-efficiency power.
Living longer
While the HEDS programme is intended to enable the combined human and robotic exploration of space - "one man and 10smart machines", says Mankin - it is equally focused on creating the right conditions for the commercial development of space. "A low cost, long lived infrastructure in low Earth orbit and beyond will support and more robust commercial space industry," Mankins says.
Approval of the initial funding for HCTI in NASA's 2001 budget, while only a modest $10-20 million, seems to suggest that US politicians accept the argument that government must bear at least some of the cost of first developing the infrastructure and then of enabling the eventual commercial exploitation of space.
It is a debate which rages around almost every aspect of the US space programme: should government or industry pay to upgrade the space launch ranges; to develop the next generation of launch vehicle; to go beyond low Earth orbit? "The best example for HCTI is the expendable launch vehicle industry," Mankins says. "Look back at the [government] investment of 30-40 years ago in space exploration infrastructure. It has led to large and successful industry."
NASA would like to take its partners in the International Space Station along on the ride into high Earth orbit and beyond. "We've had good discussions over technology with both the Canadian Space Agency and with ESA," Mankins says.
"We all face a similar challenge - what's after the ISS. The other partners have come up with their vision. Now we need to sort out collectively what's next."
Source: Flight International
